Persistence and extinction dynamics driven by the rate of environmental change in a predator–prey metacommunity

Arumugam, Ramesh; Guichard, Frédéric; Lutscher, Frithjof

doi:10.1007/s12080-020-00473-8

Cited by 20 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…The tracking of unstable states we reported here affects fundamental dynamical properties such as local and regional extinctions, and the emergence of spatially (a)synchronous fluctuations. The phenomena that we observe are not restricted to our specific spatial model, and may apply to a wide range of ecological scenarios (Abbott and Nolting 2017, Arumugam et al 2020). These scenarios include larger networks of more than two patches, but future work will determine how tracking may change with network size.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 74%

Tracking unstable states: ecosystem dynamics in a changing world

Arumugam

Lutscher

Guichard

2021

Oikos

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Ecological systems can show complex and sometimes abrupt responses to environmental change, with important implications for their resilience. Theories of alternate stable states have been used to predict regime shifts of ecosystems as equilibrium responses to sufficiently slow environmental change. The actual rate of environmental change is a key factor affecting the response, yet we are still lacking a non-equilibrium theory that explicitly considers the influence of this rate of environmental change. We present a metacommunity model of predator-prey interactions displaying multiple stable states, and we impose an explicit rate of environmental change in habitat quality (carrying capacity) and connectivity (dispersal rate). We study how regime shifts depend on the rate of environmental change and compare the outcome with a stability analysis in the corresponding constant environment. Our results reveal that in a changing environment, the community can track states that are unstable in the constant environment. This tracking can lead to regime shifts, including local extinctions, that are not predicted by alternative stable state theory. In our metacommunity, tracking unstable states also controls the maintenance of spatial heterogeneity and spatial synchrony. Tracking unstable states can also lead to regime shifts that may be reversible or irreversible. Our study extends current regime shift theories to integrate rate-dependent responses to environmental change. It reveals the key role of unstable states for predicting transient dynamics and long-term resilience of ecological systems to climate change.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 74%

Tracking unstable states: ecosystem dynamics in a changing world

Arumugam

Lutscher

Guichard

2021

Oikos

Self Cite

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“…As a result, our measure of stability is based on a stationary distribution that characterizes any given climate scenario, and that can only capture transient responses to dynamic changes in connectivity within that scenario. This stationary distribution is an envelope that captures the dynamics of the total population which may in theory include transients, cycles or even chaotic dynamics (Holland and Hastings 2008, Arumugam et al 2020). Regardless of the nature of the dynamics, this envelope captures extreme population fluctuations within a given climate scenario.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic larval dispersal can mediate the response of marine metapopulations to multiple climate change impacts

Bani

Marleau

Fortin

et al. 2021

Oikos

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Climate change is having multiple impacts on marine species characterized by sedentary adult and pelagic larval phases, from increasing adult mortality to changes in larval duration and ocean currents. Recent studies have shown impacts of climate change on species persistence through direct effects on individual survival and development, but few have considered the indirect effects mediated by ocean currents and species traits such as pelagic larval duration. We used a density-dependent and stochastic metapopulation model to predict how changes in adult mortality and dynamic connectivity can affect marine metapopulation stability. We analyzed our model with connectivity data simulated from a biophysical ocean model of the northeast Pacific coast forced under current (1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007) and future (2068)(2069)(2070)(2071)(2072)(2073)(2074)(2075)(2076)(2077) climate scenarios in combination with scenarios of increasing adult mortality and decreasing larval duration. Our results predict that changes of ocean currents and larval duration mediated by climate change interact in complex and opposing directions to shape local mortality and metapopulation connectivity with synergistic effects on regional metapopulation stability: while species with short larval duration are most sensitive to temperature-driven reduction in larval duration, the response of species with longer larval duration are mostly mediated by changes in both the mean and variance of larval connectivity driven by ocean currents. Our results emphasize the importance of considering the spatiotemporal structure of connectivity in order to predict how the multiple effects of climate change will impact marine populations.

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“…Our results predict long-term response of metapopulation dynamics (stability) to climate scenarios. Integrating dynamic connectivity to our understanding of transient metapopulation response (Holland and Hastings 2008) to ongoing climate change and to its rate (Arumugam et al 2020) also constitutes an important challenge.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic larval dispersal can mediate the response of marine metapopulations to multiple climate change impacts

Bani

Marleau

Fortin

et al. 2020

Preprint

Self Cite

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Climate change is having multiple impacts on marine species characterized by sedentary adult and pelagic larval phases, from increasing adult mortality to changes in larval duration and ocean currents. Recent studies have shown impacts of climate change on species persistence through direct effects on individual survival and development, but few have considered the indirect effects mediated by ocean currents and species traits such as pelagic larval duration. We used a density-dependent and stochastic metapopulation model to predict how changes in adult mortality and dynamic connectivity can affect marine metapopulation stability. We analyzed our model with connectivity data simulated from a biophysical ocean model of the northeast Pacific coast forced under current (1998-2007) and future (2068-2077) climate scenarios in combination with scenarios of increasing adult mortality and decreasing larval duration. Our results predict that changes of ocean currents and larval duration mediated by climate change interact in complex and opposing directions to shape local mortality and metapopulation connectivity with synergistic effects on regional metapopulation stability: while species with short larval duration are most sensitive to temperature-driven reduction in larval duration, the response of species with longer larval duration are mostly mediated by changes in both the mean and variance of larval connectivity driven by ocean currents. Our results emphasize the importance of considering the spatiotemporal structure of connectivity in order to predict how the multiple effects of climate change will impact marine populations.

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Persistence and extinction dynamics driven by the rate of environmental change in a predator–prey metacommunity

Cited by 20 publications

References 51 publications

Tracking unstable states: ecosystem dynamics in a changing world

Tracking unstable states: ecosystem dynamics in a changing world

Dynamic larval dispersal can mediate the response of marine metapopulations to multiple climate change impacts

Dynamic larval dispersal can mediate the response of marine metapopulations to multiple climate change impacts

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