Permafrost Thaw and Associated Settlement Hazard Onset Timing over the Qinghai-Tibet Engineering Corridor

Guo, Dali; Sun, Jun

doi:10.1007/s13753-015-0072-3

Cited by 26 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 40 publications

(30 reference statements)

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“…It is therefore extremely vulnerable to climate change (Cheng, 1999). Permafrost degradation not only strongly affects local hydrological processes, soil biogeochemical cycles and regional atmospheric circulation but also intensifies climate warming and exerts great impacts on human activity (Nelson et al, 2001;Nelson, 2003;Guo et al, 2012;Guo and Sun, 2015;Guo and Wang, 2017). Several studies have reported extensive shrinkage of permafrost on the TP under climate warming (Wang, 1997;Cheng and Wu, 2007;Yang et al, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau under current and future climate conditions using the CMIP5 data

Chang

Lyu

Luo

et al. 2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Permafrost has significant impacts on climate change through its strong interaction with the climate system. In order to better understand the permafrost variation and the role it plays in climate change, model outputs from Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are used in the present study to diagnose the near‐surface permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), assess the abilities of the models to simulate present‐day (1986–2005) permafrost and project future permafrost change on the TP under four different representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The results indicate that estimations of present‐day permafrost using the surface frost index (SFI) and the Kudryavtsev method (KUD) show a spatial distribution similar to that of the frozen soil map on the TP. However, the permafrost area calculated via the KUD is larger than that calculated via the SFI. The SFI produces a present‐day permafrost area of 127.2 × 104 km2. The results also indicate that the permafrost on the TP will undergo regional degradation, mainly at the eastern, southern and northeastern edges, during the 21st century. Furthermore, most of the sustainable permafrost will probably exist only in the northwestern TP by 2099. The SFI also indicates that the permafrost area will shrink by 13.3 × 104 km2 (9.7%) and 14.6 × 104 km2 (10.5%) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, in the next 20 years and by 36.7 × 104 km2 (26.6%) and 45.7 × 104 km2 (32.7%), respectively, in the next 50 years. The results are helpful for us to better understand the permafrost response to climate change over the TP, further investigate the physical mechanism of the freeze–thaw process and improve the model parameterization scheme.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau under current and future climate conditions using the CMIP5 data

Chang

Lyu

Luo

et al. 2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…The thawing of permafrost can result in the release of soil organic carbon, the melting of ground ice, and changes in the seasonal soil freezing and thawing processes. These changes will, in turn, affect the climate (Li & Chen, ; Schuur et al, ), the hydrology and availability of water resources (Guo, Wang, & Li, ; Liljedahl et al, ), the stabilization of engineering facilities underlain by permafrost (Guo & Sun, ; Guo & Wang, ; Nelson et al, ), and the terrestrial ecosystem (Qin, Zhou, & Xiao, ; Yang et al, ). Therefore permafrost has an important role in the climate system of a warming world.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulated Historical (1901–2010) Changes in the Permafrost Extent and Active Layer Thickness in the Northern Hemisphere

Guo

Wang

2017

JGR Atmospheres

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A growing body of simulation research has considered the dynamics of permafrost, which has an important role in the climate system of a warming world. Previous studies have concentrated on the future degradation of permafrost based on global climate models (GCMs) or data from GCMs. An accurate estimation of historical changes in permafrost is required to understand the relations between changes in permafrost and the Earth's climate and to validate the results from GCMs. Using the Community Land Model 4.5 driven by the Climate Research Unit ‐National Centers for Environmental Prediction (CRUNCEP) atmospheric data set and observations of changes in soil temperature and active layer thickness and present‐day areal extent of permafrost, this study investigated the changes in permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere from 1901 to 2010. The results showed that the model can reproduce the interannual variations in the observed soil temperature and active layer thickness. The simulated area of present‐day permafrost fits well with observations, with a bias of 2.02 × 106 km2. The area of permafrost decreased by 0.06 (0.62) × 106 km2 decade−1 from 1901 to 2009 (1979 to 2009). A clear decrease in the area of permafrost was found in response to increases in air temperatures during the period from about the 1930s to the 1940s, indicating that permafrost is sensitive to even a temporary increase in temperature. From a regional perspective, high‐elevation permafrost decreases at a faster rate than high‐latitude permafrost; permafrost in China shows the fastest rate of decrease, followed by Alaska, Russia, and Canada. Discrepancies in the rate of decrease in the extent of permafrost among different regions were mostly linked to the sensitivity of permafrost in the regions to increases in air temperatures rather than to the amplitude of the increase in air temperatures. An increase in the active layer thickness of 0.009 (0.071) m decade−1 was shown during the period of 1901–2009 (1979–2009). These results are useful in understanding the response of permafrost to a historical warming climate and for validating the results from GCMs.

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“…Ground instability is impacting the dense network of equipment and infrastructures existing in these regions [22,41,42]. With the warming climate anticipated during the next decades, it is expected that permafrost degradation will increase in these regions and therefore local, regional and national administrations will have to invest large sums to adapt the infrastructures to the changing landscape [37,42,43].…”

Section: Challenges and Perspectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Permafrost degradation on a warmer Earth: Challenges and perspectives

Oliva

Fritz

2018

Current Opinion in Environmental Science & Health

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Permafrost, the permanently frozen ground, is warming due to global temperature rise. Permafrost research has progressed rapidly in the last decade, as large areas in the Polar Regions, in mountain environments and on high-altitude plateaus are experiencing accelerated environmental changes in response to thaw and permafrost degradation. Climate scenarios for the next decades project a reduced the extent of permafrost coverage and increasing ground temperatures, promoting changes in terrestrial and nearshore ecosystem dynamics. Future research in permafrost regions should focus on a better understanding of the biogeochemical cycles associated with abrupt and long-term permafrost degradation. Risk assessment of natural hazards and geoenvironmental engineering solutions are needed to reduce the potential dramatic socioeconomic implications that permafrost degradation may entail in these regions.

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Permafrost Thaw and Associated Settlement Hazard Onset Timing over the Qinghai-Tibet Engineering Corridor

Cited by 26 publications

References 40 publications

Estimation of permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau under current and future climate conditions using the CMIP5 data

Estimation of permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau under current and future climate conditions using the CMIP5 data

Simulated Historical (1901–2010) Changes in the Permafrost Extent and Active Layer Thickness in the Northern Hemisphere

Permafrost degradation on a warmer Earth: Challenges and perspectives

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