Period Paramount? A Critique of the Cohort Approach to Fertility

Bhrolcháin, Máire Ní

doi:10.2307/1973757

Cited by 142 publications

(58 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…This accumulating effect explains almost the entire estimated effect on completed fertility (of −14.21) shown in column 1 of Table 2. § Discussion Whether temporary fertility reductions reflect mere postponement or lead to permanent reductions in completed fertility has been a central question in demographic research (16,17). In a seminal contribution, Bongaarts and Feeney (17) develop a tempo-adjusted total fertility rate that accounts for reductions in observed fertility caused by shifts in maternal age.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Short- and long-term effects of unemployment on fertility

Currie

Schwandt

2014

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

161

118

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Scholars have been examining the relationship between fertility and unemployment for more than a century. Most studies find that fertility falls with unemployment in the short run, but it is not known whether these negative effects persist, because women simply may postpone childbearing to better economic times. Using more than 140 million US birth records for the period 1975-2010, we analyze both the short-and long-run effects of unemployment on fertility. We follow fixed cohorts of US-born women defined by their own state and year of birth, and relate their fertility to the unemployment rate experienced by each cohort at different ages. We focus on conceptions that result in a live birth. We find that women in their early 20s are most affected by high unemployment rates in the short run and that the negative effects on fertility grow over time. A one percentage point increase in the average unemployment rate experienced between the ages of 20 and 24 reduces the short-run fertility of women in this age range by six conceptions per 1,000 women. When we follow these women to age 40, we find that a one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate experienced at ages 20-24 leads to an overall loss of 14.2 conceptions. This long-run effect is driven largely by women who remain childless and thus do not have either first births or higher-order births. D emographers have been examining the effect of economic conditions on fertility for more than a century (1-10). Although some find that fertility is countercyclical (8-10), most studies find procyclical fertility; that is, fertility declines in times of rising unemployment (1-7). These fertility reductions may represent mere postponement of fertility to better times (a tempo effect) or persistent long-term effects on completed fertility, i.e., on the total number of children a woman ever bears (a quantum effect).Measuring long-term effects requires the analyst to follow the fertility of fixed cohorts of women over time. Tracking cohorts is feasible at the aggregate level of an entire country, but there are few periods of high unemployment to exploit at this level of aggregation, and strong social trends in fertility that may overshadow long-term effects of past economic fluctuations (11-13). An analysis within countries-for example, at the state levelrequires accounting for internal migration and immigration, both of which may be affected by economic conditions. For example, women giving birth to third children in California in 1995 may not be the same women who gave birth to second children in California in earlier years.In this paper, we divide all births to US-born women over the past 35 y into cohorts defined by a mother's own state and year of birth. Because these mother characteristics are constant over time, we can follow the fertility of these cohorts regardless of where in the United States women subsequently gave birth. This approach provides us with both annual and completed fertility rates at the state level that are not affected by women's movements ...

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Short- and long-term effects of unemployment on fertility

Currie

Schwandt

2014

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

161

118

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“…A summary indicator, however, may be adequate for analyses of the long run that aim to explain gross changes in level. Second, the TFR and analogous indicators are in synthetic cohort form, referring to the cumulative experience of a lifetime, and are therefore in an inappropriate metric to represent the phenomena of a single period (Ní Bhrolcháin 1992). As a result, they are unsuitable as dependent variables in any substantive model of the underlying process in its period aspect.…”

Section: Period Synthetic Indicators As Dependent Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Explanation means explaining the whole of the change in period fertility, not just part of it. To remove tempo effects from period fertility as explanandum would denude it of an intrinsic and often substantial component of change (Ní Bhrolcháin 1992. The greater the timing shift in a period, the worse the impact of adjustment because a larger part of what is happening in a period, from an explanatory angle, is removed.…”

Section: Are Timing Effects a Source Of Bias In Period Fertility As Dmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tempo and the TFR

Bhrolcháin

2011

Demography

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Tempo effects in period fertility indicators are widely regarded as a source of bias or distortion. But is this always the case? Whether tempo change results in bias depends, in the view advanced here, on the measure used, the meaning of bias/distortion, and the objective of analysis. Two ways of construing bias in period measures are suggested, and their relevance is discussed in the context of five broad purposes for measuring period fertility: describing and explaining fertility time trends, anticipating future prospects, providing input parameters for formal models, and communicating with nonspecialist audiences. Genuine timing effects are not biasing when period fertility is the explanandum but are distorting when the aim is to estimate cohort fertility. Alternatives to tempo adjustment are available that are a more defensible solution to the issue of timing change. Tempo adjustment could be more fruitfully considered a form of modeling rather than empirical measurement. The measurement of period fertility could be improved by relying more on a statistical approach and less on indicators based on stable assumptions. Future progress will depend on integrating research on measurement with substantive investigation.

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“…In light of the research that indicates fertility is a period-driven process (i.e., social changes affect people of all ages and cohorts similarly and at the same time; see Ní Bhrolcháin [1992]), an assessment of the sex-of-previous-children effect by calendar year is preferred to a cohort-based approach. The period approach also allows inclusion of more contemporary data (i.e., data for women still in the childbearing years at the survey date).…”

Section: Magnitude and Trends In Effects Of Sex Of Previous Childrenmentioning

confidence: 99%

Emerging Parental Gender Indifference? Sex Composition of Children and the Third Birth

Pollard

Morgan²

2002

American Sociological Review

126

115

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For much of the twentieth century, parents in the United States with two children of the same sex were more likely to have a third child than were parents with one son and one daughter, that is, there was an effect of the sex of previous children on the occurrence of a third birth. Using multiple cycles of the Current Population Survey and National Survey of Family Growth, the authors examine the strength of this effect on both fertility behavior and intentions over multiple decades. Changes in the societal gender system are expected to weaken this pronatalist effect in recent periods. Consistent with this expectation, there has been some attenuation of the effect of sex composition of previous children on the third birth, suggesting declining salience of children's gender for parents.Along and fruitful sociological tradition links demographic differences and changes to institutional structure and change. For example, Durkheim's ([1897] 1951) classic study linked differential suicide rates to institutional differences between Protestants and Catholics. Likewise, differential child mortality for boys and girls and unusual sex ratios among children provide evidence of differential treatment of children, even when indigenous people claim that it does not exist (Dyson and Moore 1983;Johansson and Nygren 1991). Racial and gender inequality in the United States are tracked by demographic measures of income inequality (Bianchi and Spain 1986; Farley and Allen 1987) and by measures of segregation in housing or occupations (Jacobs 1989;Massey and Denton 1993). The unobtrusiveness and behavioral basis of demographic indicators are important strengths: Although attitudinal surveys suggest respondents' views may be changing, behavioral data provide an assessment less influenced by normative response bias.The current study fits in this tradition. Focusing on data spanning the last 40 years, we ask whether the desire to have both a daughter and a son has disappeared, indicating the basic equivalence, or full substitutability, of sons and daughters. Such a finding would provide strong evidence of emerging gender indifference among parents and clear evidence of greater gender equality in U.S. society.The current study also contributes to a demographic literature that links preferences for sons, daughters, or particular combinations of sons and daughters to fertility levels. More specifically, strong desires for particular sex compositions of children can substantially increase fertility. In the absence of sex preselection, Bongaarts and Potter (1983) show that if couples bear children until they have at least one son, then they will have an average of Direct correspondence to Michael S. Pollard, Department of Sociology, Duke University, Box 90088, Durham, NC 27708-0088, (mpollard@soc.duke.edu). NIH Public Access Author ManuscriptAm Sociol Rev. Author manuscript; available in PMC 2010 April 20. NIH-PA Author ManuscriptNIH-PA Author Manuscript NIH-PA Author Manuscript 1.94 births. If couples stop having children only ...

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Period Paramount? A Critique of the Cohort Approach to Fertility

Cited by 142 publications

References 52 publications

Short- and long-term effects of unemployment on fertility

Short- and long-term effects of unemployment on fertility

Tempo and the TFR

Emerging Parental Gender Indifference? Sex Composition of Children and the Third Birth

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