Perinatal mortality in Bavaria, Germany, after the Chernobyl reactor accident

Abstract

As has been shown by the authors of a paper recently published in this journal, a deviation from a long-term trend in perinatal mortality within the former Federal Republic of Germany occurred in 1987, i.e. 1 year following the Chernobyl disaster. It is the aim of this study to make a comparison between the areas of the state Bavaria. Germany, with different fallout levels as well as between the observed and expected numbers of perinatal deaths relating to these areas. The expected numbers of perinatal deaths, defined as external standard, were derived from the remainder of the former FRG. Testing an a priori formulated hypothesis revealed no differences in the temporal development of perinatal mortality between the areas with different fallout levels and subsequent exposure. Including May 1986 into the analysis revealed a significant increase during the first 3 months after the accident, which is due to an excess in May alone. Since no elevated radiation risks for the last days in utero are known, the additional Chernobyl radiation exposure is not plausible as a causative agent. Further analyses on stillbirths showed an increase in Southern Bavaria during the first 2 years following the accident. Later on, the rates were comparable to the expected values again.

Therapeutic Administration of 131I for Differentiated Thyroid Cancer: Radiation Dose to Ovaries and Outcome of Pregnancies

“…Our results are also consistent with those of the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study, which included 4,029 pregnancies; 37 of those pregnancies ended in a stillbirth (18). Up to now, studies regarding the consequences of the Chernobyl accident have been less informative because they are only temporal trend studies without individual dose estimations: An increased risk of stillbirths was found in some Eastern European countries during a period starting 1 mo after the Chernobyl accident and ending 2 y thereafter, but the results were considered by the authors to be inconsistent with the low level of effective radiation doses received by these populations (0.1-0.2 mSv/y) (19). Similar results for similar dose levels were found in Bavaria and throughout Germany during the year after the accident, but total infant mortality gradually decreased during the same period (19)(20)(21).…”

“…Up to now, studies regarding the consequences of the Chernobyl accident have been less informative because they are only temporal trend studies without individual dose estimations: An increased risk of stillbirths was found in some Eastern European countries during a period starting 1 mo after the Chernobyl accident and ending 2 y thereafter, but the results were considered by the authors to be inconsistent with the low level of effective radiation doses received by these populations (0.1-0.2 mSv/y) (19). Similar results for similar dose levels were found in Bavaria and throughout Germany during the year after the accident, but total infant mortality gradually decreased during the same period (19)(20)(21). In contrast to but consistent with the Japanese atomic bomb survivor results, the stillbirth rate appeared to be unaffected by the Chernobyl accident in Finland, despite a welldocumented monthly dose estimation (22), in Sweden (23), and in Norway (24).…”

Chernobyl fallout and outcome of pregnancy in Finland.

“…However, a more detailed analysis did not find differences according to fallout level in Bavaria, the most heavily contaminated part of the former Federal Republic of Germany (34).…”

7. Mortality after the Chernobyl Catastrophe

“…5% Körblein, 2003;Scherb and Weigelt, 2003;Frentzel-Beyme and Scherb, 2007;Norway Ulstein et al, 1990 Hungary Czeizel andBillege, 1988;Scherb and Weigelt, 2003 Finland Increased ca. 20% Harjulehto et al, 198920% Harjulehto et al, , 1991Scherb and Weigelt, 2003;Frentzel-Beyme andScherb, 2007 Germany Körblein andKüchenhoff, 1997;Scherb and Weigelt, 2003;Lüning et al, 1989;Grosche et al, 1997;Scherb et al, 1999;Körblein, 2003a;Frentzel-Beyme and Scherb, 2007England and Wales Increased twofold in February 1987Bentham, 1991Busby, 1995 Denmark Increased 20% Frentzel-Beyme and Scherb, 2007 Iceland Increased 30% Frentzel-Beyme and Scherb, 2007 Hungary Increased 30% Frentzel-Beyme and Scherb, 2007 long-term trend. Infant mortality monthly data, 1985-1991, show a significant correlation with the Cs-137 burden during pregnancy (Körblein, 2003(Körblein, , 2006.…”