Performance of a nowcast/forecast system for Prince William Sound, Alaska

Mooers, Christopher N. K.; Wu, Xinglong; Bang, Inkweon

doi:10.1016/j.csr.2007.09.008

Cited by 16 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…Further validation of EPWS/NFS with observed data demonstrates that, despite that EPWS/NFS captures most important features of the general ocean circulation in PWS, temporal means of baroclinic velocity profiles in Central Sound agree in order of magnitude but have some serious discrepancies in direction between nowcast and observed values. For 40-h lowpassed velocities, EPWS/NFS underestimates the observed low-frequency variability close to the bottom and has substantial errors (i.e., rmse) in nowcasting low-frequency velocity in Central Sound (Mooers et al 2009). The discrepancy presumably is attributed to the one-way coupling scheme used between Global-NCOM and EPWS/NFS at the open boundaries, where the horizontal resolution of Global-NCOM is 1/8 degree.…”

Section: Prince William Sound Nowcast/forecast Systemmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…The horizontal and vertical resolution is sufficient to resolve mesoscale eddies prevailing inside PWS. Initial assessment of its performance indicates significant improvement of most predicted variables over the first-generation system (Mooers et al 2009). Further validation of EPWS/NFS with observed data demonstrates that, despite that EPWS/NFS captures most important features of the general ocean circulation in PWS, temporal means of baroclinic velocity profiles in Central Sound agree in order of magnitude but have some serious discrepancies in direction between nowcast and observed values.…”

Section: Prince William Sound Nowcast/forecast Systemmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…1), both of which are able to provide up to a 72-h forecast. Real-time operation of EPWS-NFS, starting from Feb 2005, is running continuously with inputs of surface atmospheric forcing from RAMS, surface heating/cooling by COADS climatological monthly flux, tidal forcing (elevation and currents) from a 2-D tidal model (Mooers et al 2009), and flow/temperature/salinity forcings at lateral open boundaries from Global-NCOM (Barron et al 2006).…”

Section: Prince William Sound Nowcast/forecast Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Based on the Princeton Ocean Model (POM ;Mellor 2002;Blumberg and Mellor 1987), EPWS/NFS is the second generation of coastal ocean prediction system for PWS. EPWS/NFS has a grid size of 1/100th degree in latitude and 1/50th degree in longitude (ca.…”

Section: Prince William Sound Nowcast/forecast Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Transport through Prince William Sound: numerical study in a nowcast/forecast system

2011

Ocean Dynamics

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Using 1-year simulated data from extended Prince William Sound (PWS) nowcast/forecast system, both barotropic and baroclinic transports through twostrait, semi-enclosed PWS are examined. With major tidal constituents removed, hourly time series of volume transports through two straits are significantly correlated with net transport well balanced by the time rate of change of the PWS spatial-mean sea level. A transition frequency band occurs within the coherence function of hourly volume transports, which is characterized by a nearly 180 • phase shift between lowfrequency (>30 h) and high-frequency (<6 h) bands. The transition band is implicitly related to the horizontally divergent and horizontally non-divergent flows inside the Sound. Further investigation of monthly and annual mean volume transports indicates strong seasonal variability of flows through two straits. On the other hand, baroclinic transport through PWS demonstrates the transition between a two-layered flow structure during the wintertime and a well-defined three-layered structure, i.e., inflow in both the surface and bottom layer with outflow in the intermediate layer, in the remainder of the year. This three-layer exchange flow is determined to be mainly buoyancy-driven, geostrophic flow, and thus largely affected by seasonal variability of buoyancy over the shelf and PWS.

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Section: Prince William Sound Nowcast/forecast Systemmentioning

confidence: 95%

Section: Prince William Sound Nowcast/forecast Systemmentioning

confidence: 98%

Section: Prince William Sound Nowcast/forecast Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Prince William Sound Nowcast/forecast Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Transport through Prince William Sound: numerical study in a nowcast/forecast system

2011

Ocean Dynamics

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“…The ocean circulation modeling system for PWS, called the PWS Nowcast/Forecast System, was based on the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) and was forced by winds, tides, heat flux, and freshwater buoyancy (Mooers et al 2009, and references therein). Tidal heights and currents were computed from tidal harmonics (amplitudes and phases) interpolated from a northeast Pacific tide model.…”

Section: Pws Observing System Following Thementioning

confidence: 99%

An Ocean Observing and Prediction Experiment in Prince William Sound, Alaska

Schoch¹,

Chao

Colas

et al. 2011

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

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The observing and forecasting conditions of coastal oceans in Alaska is technically challenging because of the mountainous terrain, the notoriously stormy seas, and a complex hydrological system of freshwater from rivers and glaciers. The Alaska Ocean Observing System and their partners developed a demonstration project over a 5-yr period in Prince William Sound. This location was chosen because of historical efforts to monitor ocean circulation following the Exxon Valdez oil spill of 1989. The primary goal is to develop a quasi-operational system that delivers weather and ocean information in near–real time to diverse user communities. This observing system now consists of a spatial array of atmospheric and oceanic sensors and a new generation of computer models to numerically simulate and forecast weather, waves, and ocean circulation. The project culminated in a 2009 field experiment that evaluated the performance of the model forecasts. Three ships, 44 surface drifters, an underwater glider, and an autonomous underwater vehicle, as well as two shore-based surface current radar systems, augmented the routine atmospheric and oceanographic measurements from weather stations and oceanographic buoys. Observations from terrestrial and moored weather stations were compared with atmospheric circulation forecasts, and wave gauges provided data that were used to evaluate the forecasts of significant wave heights and periods. The radar current mappers and drifter buoys validated the surface ocean circulation forecasts. Improved observations and forecasts of coastal oceans will benefit oil spill responders, commercial shippers that convey large amounts of freight to and from Alaska, and U.S. Coast Guard search-and-rescue operations.

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Preface

MacCready

Jay

2009

Continental Shelf Research

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Performance of a nowcast/forecast system for Prince William Sound, Alaska

Cited by 16 publications

References 18 publications

Transport through Prince William Sound: numerical study in a nowcast/forecast system

Transport through Prince William Sound: numerical study in a nowcast/forecast system

An Ocean Observing and Prediction Experiment in Prince William Sound, Alaska

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