Abstract. This paper studies the impact of variable transmission delays on the Transmission Control Protocol (TCP). Sudden delay variations, which are not unemurnon in mobile networks, may degrade the performance since they may cause spurious TCP timeouts. The rnost irnportant pararneter in this context is the TCP retransmission timer. In this paper, we analyze TCP's round-trip time estimation for bulk data traffic over wireless links. The rnain contribution is a new analytical rnodel that accurately predicts the timeout duration from given network pararneters. As a first result, the rnodel shows that the round-trip time sampling rate has a significant impact on the timer characteristics. Therefore, the standardized estimation algorithm does not harmonize weil with timestamp-based rneasurement. Second, we quantify the risk of spurious TCP timeouts triggered by changing round-trip tirnes, in particular long off periods. We conclude that delay variations are only critical when they are on the order of seconds.