Performance-goal based (risk informed) approach for establishing the SSE site specific response spectrum for future nuclear power plants

Kennedy, R.P.

doi:10.1016/j.nucengdes.2010.08.001

Cited by 34 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…As shown by Kennedy (2011), for example, the seismic risk, y(a 0 ), can be obtained by convolving the seismic hazard curve and the fragility curve using either of these equations:…”

Section: Computing Risk-targeted Ground Motionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, assuming a 1% chance in 50 years and 1 million buildings (a rough number for areas within the 'moderate' and 'medium' hazard zones of France) we would have on average 200 collapsed buildings due to earthquakes per year, which seems much too high. As a compromise between roughly 10 −4 adopted by Luco et al (2007) and computed by Fajfar andDolšek (2012), andGoulet et al (2007) and 10 −6 suggested by Labbé (2010), Duckett (2004) and Kennedy (2011), we adopt Y = 10 −5 for subsequent analysis.…”

Section: Target Annual Probability Of Collapse Ymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Bommer et al (2005a) propose a more sophisticated approach in which the seismic design levels are fixed based on iterative loss estimation having defined the loss target, but they do not present any calculations using their method. Within the nuclear industry, analyses like that used to develop risk-targeted ground-motion maps for standard structures are becoming widely used, as shown by Kennedy (2011) in relation to the ASCE Standard 43-05. The threshold risk level for nuclear installations, however, is generally lower than targeted for standard structures for the new generation of US seismic design maps.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Risk-targeted seismic design maps for mainland France

2012

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In this article the recently proposed approach known as 'risk-targeting' for the development of national seismic design maps is investigated for mainland France. Risktargeting leads to ground-motion maps that, if used for design purposes, would lead to a uniform level of risk nationally. The Eurocode 8 design loads currently in force for France are used as the basis of this study. Because risk-targeting requires various choices on, for example, the level of acceptable risk to be made a priori and these choices are not solely engineering decisions but involve input from decision makers we undertake sensitivity tests to study their influence. It is found that, in contrast to applications of this methodology for US cities, risk-targeting does not lead to large modifications with respect to the national seismic hazard map nor to changes in the relative ranking of cities with respect to their design ground motions. This is because the hazard curves for French cities are almost parallel. In addition, we find that using a target annual collapse probability of about 10 −5 for seismically-designed buildings and a probability of collapse when subjected to the design PGA of 10 −5 leads to reasonable results. This is again in contrast to US studies that have adopted much higher values for both these probabilities.

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“…As shown by Kennedy (2011), for example, the seismic risk, y(a 0 ), can be obtained by convolving the seismic hazard curve and the fragility curve using either of these equations:…”

Section: Computing Risk-targeted Ground Motionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Target Annual Probability Of Collapse Ymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Risk-targeted seismic design maps for mainland France

2012

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“…means (1 − ) percentile of the standard normal deviate (when is equal to 1%, is 2.326, and when = 10%, = 1.282). The seismic margin factors for different values are calculated by Kennedy [4], as listed in Table 4.…”

Section: Confidence and Error Analysis Of A Design Example Based On Tmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…ASCE/SEI 43-05, whose basis was also the mean seismic probability risk model, was a risk-consistent seismic design criterion in the United States [3]. Kennedy [4] provided the technical basis for the performance-goal based approach presented in the American Society of Civil Engineering Standard ASCE/SEI 43-05. In China, the newest modified seismic design code of nuclear power plants [5] suggested using the seismic evaluation methodology of ASCE/SEI 43-05, whose basis was also the mean seismic probability risk model.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Study on the Confidence and Reliability of the Mean Seismic Probability Risk Model

Wang

Lü

2017

Science and Technology of Nuclear Installations

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The mean seismic probability risk model has widely been used in seismic design and safety evaluation of critical infrastructures. In this paper, the confidence levels analysis and error equations derivation of the mean seismic probability risk model are conducted. It has been found that the confidence levels and error values of the mean seismic probability risk model are changed for different sites and that the confidence levels are low and the error values are large for most sites. Meanwhile, the confidence levels of ASCE/SEI 43-05 design parameters are analyzed and the error equation of achieved performance probabilities based on ASCE/SEI 43-05 is also obtained. It is found that the confidence levels for design results obtained using ASCE/SEI 43-05 criteria are not high, which are less than 95%, while the high confidence level of the uniform risk could not be achieved using ASCE/SEI 43-05 criteria and the error values between risk model with target confidence level and mean risk model using ASCE/SEI 43-05 criteria are large for some sites. It is suggested that the seismic risk model considering high confidence levels instead of the mean seismic probability risk model should be used in the future.

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Risk‐based seismic design for collapse safety

Sinković

Brozovič

Dolšek

2016

Earthq Engng Struct Dyn

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Summary Risk‐based seismic design, as introduced in this paper, involves the use of different types of analysis in order to satisfy a risk‐based performance objective with a reasonable utilization rate and sufficient reliability. Differentiation of the reliability of design can be achieved by defining different design algorithms depending on the importance of a structure. In general, the proposed design is iterative, where the adjustment of a structure during iterations is the most challenging task. Rather than using automated design algorithms, an attempt has been made to introduce three simple guidelines for adjusting reinforced concrete frames in order to increase their strength and deformation capacity. It is shown that an engineer can design a reinforced concrete frame in a few iterations, for example, by adjusting the structure on the basis of pushover analysis and checking the final design by means of nonlinear dynamic analysis. A possible variant of the risk‐based design algorithm for the collapse safety of reinforced concrete frame buildings is proposed, and its application is demonstrated by means of an example of an eight‐storey reinforced concrete building. Four iterations were required in order to achieve the risk‐based performance objective with a reasonable utilization rate. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Performance-goal based (risk informed) approach for establishing the SSE site specific response spectrum for future nuclear power plants

Cited by 34 publications

References 3 publications

Risk-targeted seismic design maps for mainland France

Risk-targeted seismic design maps for mainland France

Study on the Confidence and Reliability of the Mean Seismic Probability Risk Model

Risk‐based seismic design for collapse safety

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