Performance evaluation of the M8 algorithm to predict M7+ earthquakes in Turkey

Abstract

The M8 algorithm is one of the most reliable intermediate-term middle-range earthquake prediction algorithms. The present study evaluates the ability of the M8 algorithm and its modified versions for predicting major events (M7+) in Turkey. Thirty different algorithms were developed by changing the radius of circle of investigation (CI) and the lower magnitude cutoff of the M8 algorithm. These modified algorithms were executed all over the territory of Turkey, and the results were evaluated using the error diagram. Each modified algorithm was executed for consecutive half-year intervals over a specified period of time. Subsequently, the seismic catalog was updated, and failures-to-predict ratio and the fraction of alarm were considered. Results showed that the location of areas of alarm change gradually over consecutive intervals, and no sudden changes can be observed. In addition, the annual changes of areas of alarm are not random and follow a pattern. This study also showed that the modified algorithm having a three to six annual average of events and a 393-km CI radius is an efficient algorithm for predicting the future seismic events in Turkey. This algorithm predicted six out of six target events, retrospectively, with a confidence level of 96.4 %. According to the obtained results, it will be possible to rely on this modified algorithm to predict near future earthquakes of Turkey. Furthermore, this study proves that it is possible to alter the M8 algorithm for being used in regional studies.

RST Analysis of Anomalous TIR Sequences in Relation with Earthquakes Occurred in Turkey in the Period 2004–2015

“…Just focusing on the Turkish territory, results on NAF, EAF, IA, and TF were compared with the earthquake and fault densities by [80] (Figure 8), also in agreement with Figures 1 and 2. It is worth noting that the region of the Tuzgölü Fault has a medium-low value of fault density but a very low density of seismic activity.…”

“…Fault density map [80]); (c) SSTA density map together with the main fault systems (see Figure 1) and earthquakes (green points) considered in this study (see Figure 2).…”

“…Such a comparison suggests that SSTAs are not simply related to fault systems (indeed, they appear quite often there), but particularly to those that are seismically active. [80]); (c) SSTA density map together with the main fault systems (see Figure 1) and earthquakes (green points) considered in this study (see Figure 2).…”

“…Figure 8. (a) Normalized density map of earthquakes and (b) normalized density map of faults (modified from[80]); (c) SSTA density map together with the main fault systems (see Figure1) and earthquakes (green points) considered in this study (see Figure2).…”

Analytical study on seismic strengthening of existing reinforced concrete buildings by implementation of energy absorbers

“…5 7 Moreover, due to the continued convergence between Eurasian Plate and both the Arabian and African Plates, there is generated energy that is stored and can be released at any moment in the form of considerable earthquakes magnitude. Therefore, at least one major earthquake of magnitude ≥ 7.0 can occur in the future [5,6]. The major earthquake return period in Türkiye is around seven years according to AFAD which is a very short-term return interval for a major earthquake.…”