Perception-based foraging for competing resources: Assessing pest population dynamics at the landscape scale from heterogeneous resource distribution

Bourhis, Yoann; Poggi, Sylvain; Mammeri, Youcef; Cortesero, Anne‐Marie; Ralec, Anne Le; Parisey, Nicolas

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.05.029

Cited by 9 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…Establishing the relationship between trap catch data and the local population density of S. litura is also important for proper pest management 58,59 . Moreover, although the quantity and quality of food resources may affect the occurrence of several pests, 14,60 this could not be verified in this study. As described earlier, additional information regarding atmospheric circulation and global airflow is expected to improve the accuracy of the model.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 81%

Time‐series analysis of population dynamics of the common cutworm,Spodoptera litura(Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), using anARIMAXmodel

Kawakita

Takahashi

2022

Pest Management Science

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BACKGROUND Developing a model that adequately explains pest population dynamics based on weather‐related parameters is fundamentally important for proper pest management. Autocorrelation with past occurrences should be considered when modeling the relationship between the time series of pest occurrence data and meteorological factors; however, few attempts have been made to model these factors simultaneously. In this study, we constructed an autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variables (ARIMAX) model to represent the occurrence of the common cutworm, Spodoptera litura (F.) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), a major moth pest species in Asia, using the trap catch data of S. litura recorded approximately every 5 days. The multiple meteorological measurements taken over several past periods before S. litura occurrence were included as explanatory variables to evaluate their lag effects on future occurrences. RESULTS It was suggested that temperature had the most important effect on S. litura occurrences among other meteorological factors (i.e., humidity, wind speed, and precipitation). Especially, higher temperatures during the larval/egg stage seemed to presage a higher moth abundance. When the model was fitted using independent data that were not used for calibrating the model, the model was able to capture trends in increases in the scale of occurrence, particularly after July, when the occurrence rapidly increased. CONCLUSION Past temperature condition, particularly during the larval and egg states, is suggested to be highly important for predicting future S. litura occurrences. The ARIMAX model proposed here will allow preventive measures to be taken, effectively safeguarding food resources against pest outbreaks. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 81%

Time‐series analysis of population dynamics of the common cutworm,Spodoptera litura(Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), using anARIMAXmodel

Kawakita

Takahashi

2022

Pest Management Science

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“…For example, hedgerow networks, which may behave as ecological corridors along which some animal species disperse, but also as barriers, sources or sinks for various organisms, are classically accounted in spatially explicit models by considering position-dependent mobility and reproduction parameters, both at the individual or at the population scale. Depending on various factors such as the size of the population under study or the complexity in individual behaviour that is necessary to consider, a wide range of mechanistic approaches can be used, from differential equation models to individual-based models (Bourhis et al, 2015;Preisler et al, 2013;Soubeyrand and Roques, 2014;Vinatier et al, 2011). In these models, space is either treated as continuous or discretised in a regular grid (lattice).…”

Section: Modelling Spatial Flows In Complex Landscapesmentioning

confidence: 99%

How can models foster the transition towards future agricultural landscapes?

Poggi¹,

Vinatier²,

Hannachi³

et al. 2021

Advances in Ecological Research

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“…The overall scheme use operator splitting between the reaction terms and the diffusion terms. The model was solved numerically by operator splitting, with the Runge-Kutta 4th order method solving the reaction term and the Alternating Direction Implicit scheme solving the diffusion term (as in Bourhis et al (2015); see also Hundsdorfer and Verwer (2013) for details on those methods). The total area invaded (TAI) after T years represents the total colonized area at time T, i.e.…”

Section: Model Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatially explicit economic effects of non-susceptible pests' invasion on Bt maize

Catarino

Park

Parisey

2019

Agricultural Systems

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Maize expressing the Bacillus thuringiensis Cry1Ab toxin (Bt maize) provides a more effective control of corn borers than the use of insecticides. Yet, the spatial expansion of Bt maize may offer ideal ecological conditions for the development and spread of secondary pests, i.e. pests not susceptible to the expressed toxin. This paper develops a bio-economic, spatially explicit population model to analyse the spread and economic consequences of a secondary pest outbreak. Results show that the present use and even an eventual expansion of Bt maize can be economically and environmentally advantageous, as it would decrease insecticide usage intensity. However, we show that caution is required when considering its widespread use. If a pest outbreak is not identified and dealt with at an early stage, it could lead to severe economic impacts even if insecticides are used in combination with the Bt maize. We further discuss potential policy and subsequent management strategies to address this issue.

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Perception-based foraging for competing resources: Assessing pest population dynamics at the landscape scale from heterogeneous resource distribution

Cited by 9 publications

References 62 publications

Time‐series analysis of population dynamics of the common cutworm,Spodoptera litura(Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), using anARIMAXmodel

Time‐series analysis of population dynamics of the common cutworm,Spodoptera litura(Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), using anARIMAXmodel

How can models foster the transition towards future agricultural landscapes?

Spatially explicit economic effects of non-susceptible pests' invasion on Bt maize

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