Perceived Poll Bias and Inference of Biased Poll Impact in the 2010 U.S. Midterm Elections: Media Performance in the Eyes of the Beholder

Abstract

This study examines the role of perceptions of opinion polls in assessing media performance in the 2010 midterm elections using data collected in a southern state. Results show strong hostile media effect in viewing the favorability of the polls and the third-person effect in assessing the impact of the polls on others and oneself. Moreover, results indicate that the influence of hostile polls on the perceived effect of these polls on oneself relative to others was mediated by poll exposure. Perception of hostile polls was found to be negatively related to poll exposure. The hotile perception indirectly affects perceived effects of polls on oneself and others, which in turn directly affects support for restrictions of election polls. The theretical and practical implications of the findings are discussed.