Perceived Control, Severity, Certainty, and Emotional Fear: Testing an Expanded Model of Deterrence

Abstract

Objectives: Growing evidence indicates that criminologists should incorporate emotional states, such as fear, into standard deterrence frameworks. Within the fear of crime literature, there is empirical support for the “sensitivity to risk” model, which posits perceived victimization control and severity drive certainty perceptions, and these cognitions, in turn, drive fear of crime. We apply this logic to offender decision-making. Methods: Using a sample of young adults ( N = 829), an anonymous online survey, and path analysis, this study investigates an expanded model of deterrence. Results: Perceived control over apprehension directly reduced perceptions of the certainty of being apprehended. Perceived severity was both directly and indirectly, through perceived certainty, associated with greater fear of apprehension. Fear of apprehension is negatively associated with reported criminal propensity, and the effects of cognitive judgments of control, severity, and certainty have an indirect effect on reported criminal propensity via fear of apprehension. Conclusions: Our findings illustrate the need to better understand the psychological and emotional aspects of deterrence. Individuals do not simply consult their preformed certainty perceptions when considering crime. Identifying all of the relevant cognitions and the emotions is critical for advancing criminological theories and improving crime policies.

Modeling Individual Defiance of COVID-19 Pandemic Mitigation Strategies: Insights From the Expanded Model of Deterrence and Protection Motivation Theory

“…The generalizability of our sample and data collection method must also be considered. The study used a national online opt-in sample of U.S. adults, motivated, in part, by the fact that the expanded model of deterrence has only been tested among university students (Roche et al, 2020). This sampling strategy allowed for a data collection across the U.S. that was timely and consistent with CDC and university Institutional Review Board recommendations to avoid in-person contact with research subjects.…”

“…Jackson, 2011Jackson, , 2015Warr, 1987). Specifically, Roche et al (2020) highlighted the difference between cognitive judgments and emotional responses. Cognitive judgments include perceptions of the certainty and severity of a negative outcome (and a nuanced relationship between the two); 2 emotional responses encompass an individual's emotional reaction to their cognitive judgment, such as fear (Warr, 2000).…”

“…This emotional state, then, becomes a proximate influence on behavior and a key mediator of perceived certainty and severity on behavior. Roche et al (2020) also noted that the amount of control an individual perceives he or she has over a situation is likely to shape fear perceptions. They noted that "all things being equal, individuals who perceive they have greater personal control over whether negative events will befall them will be less afraid of those negative events than those who perceive they have little to no control" (p. 4).…”

“…Recently, Roche et al (2020; Pickett et al, 2018) addressed these criticisms by expanding upon the traditional deterrence model to formally include both fear and perceived control; two constructs previously missing from the cost side of the rational choice equation. To do so, they adapted the “sensitivity to risk” model found in the fear of victimization literature (J.…”

Legal socialization: Understanding the obligation to obey the law

“…We measured two aspects of deterrence using Roche and colleagues' recent scales (Roche et al, 2020). Following their approach, we asked respondents how small or big of a problem (1 = Very small to 5 = Very big) the punishments would create in their life if they were caught and convicted of committing six different crimes (drunk driving, buying illegal drugs, theft, assault, burglary, and robbery).…”