Peramalan Nilai Tukar Rupiah Terhadap Dolar Singapura dengan Pendekatan Average Based Fuzzy Time Series Markov Chain

Abstract

Exchange rates, representing a country's currency value in terms of another, signify currency relationships between nations. Indonesia's strong economic ties with Singapore see the Singapore Dollar boasting the highest exchange rate against the Indonesian Rupiah in Asia. The Rupiah-Singapore Dollar exchange rate is marked by fluctuations, necessitating precise forecasts. One effective forecasting method is the average-based Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) Markov Chain. This method calculates intervals based on averages and leverages the Markov Chain concept, employing a transition probability matrix to enhance accuracy. The average-based FTS Markov Chain predicts the Rupiah-Singapore Dollar exchange rate from May 16, 2023, to October 13, 2023, delivering an impressively low Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.3642%. Notably, the forecast for October 14, 2023, is 11583.73. Consistently, this method, blending interval formation through FTS and probability transition matrix from the Markov Chain, provides reliable forecasts. These insights are invaluable for decision-makers, empowering them to proactively address potential fluctuations that might contribute to inflationary pressures on Indonesia's economy.