Pengaruh Tingkat Inflasi, Nilai Tukar Rupiah dan Harga Minyak Dunia Terhadap IHSG di BEI (Periode 2019-2021)

Abstract

As a source of finance for the corporate community and a platform for community investment, the capital market plays a crucial role in national development. The Indonesia Stock Exchange is the country's primary stock exchange (IDX). In accordance with Law No. 8 of 1995 of the Republic of Indonesia pertaining to the capital market, the capital market consists of activities related to public offerings, securities trading, public companies related to the issuance of securities, and institutions whose professions are related to securities.This research is a quantitative descriptive analysis using monthly data for the 2019-2021 observation period on the inflation rate, rupiah exchange rate, international oil prices, and the JCI. Several tests, including the data validity test, classical assumption test, and data hypothesis testing using multiple linear regression analysis are performed to obtain the findings, and Eviews financial data processing software is utilized to analyze the data.According to the findings of the t-test on the inflation rate, the inflation rate variable (INF) had a substantial influence on the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI). The rupiah exchange rate variable (KURS) has a notable impact on the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI). The world oil price (WTI) also has a substantial impact on the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI). In addition, the f-test indicates that the Inflation Rate (INF), the Rupiah Exchange Rate (KURS), and the World Oil Price (WTI) all have a substantial influence on the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) variable concurrently.
 Keywords: Inflation Rate, Rupiah Exchange Rate, World Oil Price, Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI).

The effect of NIKKEI and crude oil on market indices during COVID-19 in Indonesia

“…Based on these results, H1 is accepted and it is indicated that any increase in oil prices will be followed by an increase in the IHSG. Consistently, the results of this study are consistent with the findings of Basit (2020), Anggraeni (2022), andIndrisuari et al (2022). This finding also implies that investors responded positively to the increase in oil…”

“…Basit (2020) reports that world oil is a positive significant impact on the IHSG in the period 2016 to 2019. Anggraeni (2022) finds that crude oil had a positive and significant impact on the IHSG in the period 2019 to 2021. A similar result is also found by Indrisuari et al (2022) from March 2019 to October 2021 where crude oil prices have a positive and significant influence on the IHSG.…”

“…The previous evidence of Haryanto (2020) and Putranto (2021) are also report that Covid-19 has unfavorable impact on the IHSG. In addition, Anggraeni (2022), Gerung et al (2022), Indrisuari et al (2022), Mamesah et al (2022), and Rengkung et al (2022) report that world economic factors such as the NIKKEI and the world oil index had a relative impact on IHSG movements during the pandemic. This study aims to determine the effect of the world oil index and NIKKEI on the IHSG during the COVID-19 pandemic.…”

Modern Technical Analysis of Investment Decisions in IHSG Shares in the Banking Sector in the Midst of Economic Recession Issues

“…The era of high and radical interest rates by world central banks such as the Federal Reserve (The Fed) as the strongest central bank, Great Britain (BoE), Europe (ECB), and Switzerland (SNB) increasingly threatens the decline of the global economy to the point of entering a recession ( Afifah & Fauziyah, 2023). This has been exacerbated by the emergence of several global polemics such as world central bank monetary policy, China's zero-Covid policy, the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical conflict, high European-United States inflation which has accumulatively resulted in an increase in interest rates by several central banks as a step and effort to suppress inflation rate (Anggraeni et al, 2023). However, this policy is considered to be in contrast and irrelevant to the recovery of the post-Covid-19 economic situation (Fitriaty & Saputra, 2022).…”

“…One country that has the potential to experience a multisectoral economic recession is Indonesia. This is believed to be a manifestation of symptoms of national or global inflation as well as instability in the rupiah exchange rate against the dollar which tends to lead to depreciation (Anggraeni et al, 2023). In the closing 4th quartile of 2022, an increase in the national inflation rate was recorded, reaching 4.69% and continuing until the 3rd quartile of 2023 (Arifani et al, 2023).…”