Penerapan Metode Exponential Smoothing Untuk Peramalan Penjualan Pada Toko Gitar

Santiari, Ni Putu Linda; Rahayuda, I Gede Surya

doi:10.31328/jointecs.v5i3.1520

Cited by 7 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…Ketidakstabilan jumlah permintaan tersebut mengakibatkan perusahaan mengalami kesulitan dalam merencanakan jumlah produksi dan jumlah penyimpanan. Penelitian mengenai peramalan jumlah produksi telah banyak dilakukan, ditinjau dari penelitian terdahulu seperti yang dilakukan oleh Ni Putu Linda Santiari dan I Gede Surya Rahayuda diperoleh hasil peramalan dapat dijadikan gambaran bagi perusahaan dalam pengambilan keputusan yaitu memesan atau mempersiapkan stok barang pada periode selanjutnya [10]. Penelitian lain seperti yang dilakukan oleh Sudiman dengan penggunaan peramalan time series, peramalan dilakukan dengan membandingkan nilai error yang diperoleh.…”

Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

Penerapan Metode Peramalan Permintaan pada Produk Piece Pivot di PT. Trijaya Teknik Karawang

Darozat¹,

Wahyudin²,

Hamdani³

2022

JSE

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Fluctuations in consumer demand cause companies to experience difficulties in production planning. PT. Trijaya Teknik Karawang is a manufacturing company engaged in fabrication, machining, and stamping parts. The production process is based on job orders. Piece Pivot is one of the parts with the highest number of requests and often fluctuates. Therefore, a strategy is needed, one of which is forecasting. This study aims to compare the four forecasting methods in order to determine the right method to be applied at PT. Trijaya Teknik Karawang. The comparison is done by using the 3-month moving average method, exponential smoothing α = 0.5 and α = 0.9, linear regression and naive method. Comparisons were made using the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) error accuracy, Mean Square Error (MSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Based on data processing, the linear regression method produces the lowest error accuracy, namely MAD 2126,573, MSE 6091686.092, RMSE 2468.134 and MAPE 0.264. In tracking signal test, the movement of products meets the requirements, which are between -4 and 4. Then the Linear Regression method that can be applied to PT. Trijaya Teknik Karawang.

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Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

Penerapan Metode Peramalan Permintaan pada Produk Piece Pivot di PT. Trijaya Teknik Karawang

Darozat¹,

Wahyudin²,

Hamdani³

2022

JSE

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“…The smoothing constant ranges from 0-1, because the conditional value of a is 0< a<1. [7] Formula: F t = F t-1 + α (A t-1 -F t-1 ) Desc: F t = Forecast for period t F t-1 = Value of the previous estimate α = Smoothing factor/constant (0< α<1)…”

Section: Single Exponential Smoothingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting Information System with Single Exponential Smoothing Method in Pharmaceutical Companies PT. Priest Nirmala/Fahrenheit

Nurmaesah

Sirait

Hikmah

2022

JSG

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Forecasting systems play an important role in business and economics. In the planning of drug production at PT. Pratapa Nirmala is still semi-computerized, which is limited to recording using the Microsoft Excel program and has not used definite methods or tools, thus allowing for human errors and significant differences between forecasting and actual sales which will affect stock out and over-stock drug supplies. Forecasting is a calculation analysis technique that is carried out with qualitative and quantitative approaches to predict future events using data from the past. The method used is observation, interview, and research, and the type of research used is quantitative and qualitative with descriptive analysis. This system uses an object-oriented design method with UML (Unified Modeling Language). The programming language used is the PHP programming language with MySQL database and the forecasting method used is Single Exponential Smoothing by considering the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value. After the calculation, obtained with an alpha value of 0.9, where the value of the Mean Absolute Percentage Error generated is 16%. and the form of the forecasting equation model is Ft = Ft-1 + a (At-1 – Ft-1). So this forecast is feasible and can be applied.

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“…Metode peramalan menggunakan data history masa lalu yang sedikit atau tidak terlalu banyak. Model ini dapat diasumsikan bahwa data naik turun di sekitar nilai mean yang tetap, tanpa trend atau pola pertumbuhan konsisten, tanpa mengikuti pola atau tren [12] dengan menggunakan data masa lampau [13]. Rumus penghalusan exponential dapat ditunjukkan sebagai berikut: Ft+1 = α Xt + (1-α) Ft-1 Keterangan : Ft+1 = Ramalan untuk periode ke t+1 Xt = Nilai riil periode ke t α = Bobot yang menunjukkan konstanta penghalus (0 < α <1) Ft-1 = Ramalan untuk periode ke t-1…”

Section: Metodologi Penelitianunclassified

Penerapan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing Untuk Analisa Peramalan Penjualan

Santoso¹,

Rumetna

Isnaningtyas³

2021

mib

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Pharmacies are part of the distribution category of drug sales and purchases. The demand for drugs becomes a focal point in the distribution of customers to drugs. Employees act to prepare and record drug purchase orders for the following month. The activity of sorting the available and unavailability of drug supply data often takes a long time. Exponential smoothing method is a method of forecasting moving averages by providing easy-to-analyze weighting. Time series sales data with Exponential Smoothing forecasting method is expected to be able to handle optimal inventory for controlling drug stock inventory. The use of data for the last 6 months as reference data for recording the past for forecasting experiments for the next 3 months. Experiments with different Alpha tests for accuracy in real life. The results of the experiment with alpha 0.3 are close to the real value in forecasting the next 3 months.

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Penerapan Metode Exponential Smoothing Untuk Peramalan Penjualan Pada Toko Gitar

Cited by 7 publications

References 5 publications

Penerapan Metode Peramalan Permintaan pada Produk Piece Pivot di PT. Trijaya Teknik Karawang

Penerapan Metode Peramalan Permintaan pada Produk Piece Pivot di PT. Trijaya Teknik Karawang

Forecasting Information System with Single Exponential Smoothing Method in Pharmaceutical Companies PT. Priest Nirmala/Fahrenheit

Penerapan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing Untuk Analisa Peramalan Penjualan

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