Pemodelan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Jawa Timur Dengan Pendekatan Ekonometrika Panel Spasial

Abstract

A B S T R A C T Informasi ArtikelThe existence of the development process in the region indicates that the region seeks to achieve welfare, an indicator to see the success of the development of an area can be seen from the rate of economic growth. Their relationship (dependency) spatially related to each other can affect the economic growth of the region with the surrounding area, so that the necessary spatial econometric approach that can be used in the modeling analysis of economic growth across the region adjacent. Spatial model used is Langgrange Multiplier (LM) comprising Autoregresive Spatial Model (SAR) and Spatial Error Model (SEM) using the OpenGeoda.spatial weighting using Rook contiguity (side intersection). The test results show the spatial effects SAR models used in modeling the economic growth of the district / city in East Java. Analysis of the best model test also showed that the SAR models better than the OLS. Criteria for selecting the best model based on the smallest AIC 98.7394 and R-Squared the largest number of 0.51%. The results of spatial interaction districts / cities in East Java province were high at 0.6180 from vulnerable value of 0 to 1. The impact is seen throughvalue intercept the modelof 14.9219, where the results showed that the spatial aspects affect the rate of economic growth in each districts / cities in East Java. With significant variables on the rate of economic growth is the local revenue with the elasticity of 1.1701, capital expenditures with an elasticity of -2.7149, but for labor variables were not significant influence on the growth rate of the district / city in East Java province.