Pemodelan Generalized Additive Model For Location, Scale, and Shape (Gamlss) Dengan Pemulusan Locally Estimated Scatterplot Smoothing (Loess) pada Kasus Hiv/Aids Di Jawa Timur

Abstract

HIV / AIDS is a contagious disease that can attack all age groups of the population and is a health challenge in almost all over the world including Indonesia. Therefore, it is necessary to model HIV / AIDS cases for the factors that are suspected to influence them. One suitable method for estimating factors that influence HIV / AIDS is the Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale, and Shape (GAMLSS). The GAMLSS method is flexible because it includes expansion of a good exponential family distribution to handle overdispersion data, continuous data, and discrete data. This research will apply GAMLSS semiparametric modeling with LOESS smoothing to find out the characteristics and models of HIV / AIDS cases in East Java in 2017. Based on the analysis, it was found that the variables that significantly affected were the number of homeless people, number of victims of drug abuse, population poor, and the number of fertile age couples using condom contraception with AIC value of 437,404, degree = 1 and span = 0.3, and the distribution used is Negative Binomial I.