Peak ground acceleration prediction for on-site earthquake early warning with deep learning

Abstract

Rapid and accurate prediction of peak ground acceleration (PGA) is an important basis for determining seismic damage through on-site earthquake early warning (EEW). The current on-site EEW uses the feature parameters of the first arrival P-wave to predict PGA, but the selection of these feature parameters is limited by human experience, which limits the accuracy and timeliness of predicting peak ground acceleration (PGA). Therefore, an end-to-end deep learning model is proposed for predicting PGA (DLPGA) based on convolutional neural networks (CNNs). In DLPGA, the vertical initial arrival 3–6 s seismic wave from a single station is used as input, and PGA is used as output. Features are automatically extracted through a multilayer CNN to achieve rapid PGA prediction. The DLPGA is trained, verified, and tested using Japanese seismic records. It is shown that compared to the widely used peak displacement (Pd) method, the correlation coefficient of DLPGA for predicting PGA has increased by 12–23%, the standard deviation of error has decreased by 22–25%, and the error mean has decreased by 6.92–19.66% with the initial 3–6 s seismic waves. In particular, the accuracy of DLPGA for predicting PGA with the initial 3 s seismic wave is better than that of Pd for predicting PGA with the initial 6 s seismic wave. In addition, using the generalization test of Chilean seismic records, it is found that DLPGA has better generalization ability than Pd, and the accuracy of distinguishing ground motion destructiveness is improved by 35–150%. These results confirm that DLPGA has significant accuracy and timeliness advantages over artificially defined feature parameters in predicting PGA, which can greatly improve the effect of on-site EEW in judging the destructiveness of ground motion.