Pcn20 Exercise Lowers Estrogen and Progesterone Levels in Premenopausal Women at High Risk of Breast Cancer

Abstract

INTRODUCTION:A high proportion of patients with metastatic prostate cancer (mPC) have bone metastases (BM) which are associated with a high level of morbidity, including bone pain and skeletal related events. Although the epidemiology of prostate cancer is well documented in the United Kingdom, data on the stage at diagnosis, survival of metastatic cancer and data on incidence / prevalence of BM subsequent to prostate cancer are surprisingly scarce for such a common disease. OBJECTIVES: To develop a disease model to estimate the number of men with BM due to PC in the UK from 2010 to 2020. METHODS: A four-stage disease model (non-mPC, mPC, death from PC, death-other causes), simulating the progression of PC was developed to estimate the incidence and prevalence of mPC and BM in the United Kingdom. The incidence-based model was run over 50 years to obtain incidence and prevalence data. A 1-year cycle length was used. Inputs were obtained from published official sources. Validation used UK national statistics on number of cases / deaths with PC. After validation, a BM-component was fitted within the PC model to ensure consistency with the UK national statistics and obtain estimates of the future incidence and prevalence of BM in the United Kingdom. RESULTS: The model estimated an increase in new patients with PC from 2006 to 2020 from 35,510 to 47,417. mPC patients will increase from ϳ20,000 (1990) to 66,100 (2020). Assuming a 30% prevalence of BM and a RR of 1.35 for survival with BM compared to visceral metastases, the number of PC diagnosed men living with BM ranges from 6,000 (1995) to ϳ16,200 (2020). CONCLUSIONS: This disease model shows that the prevalence of PC is expected to increase in the UK. A substantial number of patients with mPC will develop BM though this is expected to be stable.