Pcn121 Cost-Effectiveness of a Population-Based Colorectal Cancer Screening Programme in Ireland

Bayesian Calibration of a Natural History Model with Application to a Population Model for Colorectal Cancer

“…A systematic review and pooled analysis of the sensitivity of guaiac FOBT (gFOBT) reported a 95% confidence interval of 0.31 to 0.42 for cancer and 0.10 to 0.12 for polyps, whereas the calibration produced a 95% credible interval of 0.33 to 0.39 for cancer and 0.06 to 0.13 for polyps. 17 This alignment between sensitivity in model predictions and trial data provides a validation of the model.…”

“…Tappenden and others 1,15,16 used a Markov state transition model for the natural history of CRC in the option appraisal of population-based colorectal cancer screening programs in England that informed the establishment of the NHS Bowel Cancer Screening Programme. This model was updated and modified to evaluate possible screening options for Ireland.…”

“…This model was updated and modified to evaluate possible screening options for Ireland. 17 This has subsequently been further developed and populated using recent English incidence data and data from the first round of screening in England, and it is this work that we describe here. 18 The recent availability of both incidence data with good staging information and results from screening in England makes this piece of work particularly timely.…”