Patterns of Iron Use in Societal Evolution

Müller, Daniel B.; Wang, Tao; Duval, Benjamin D.

doi:10.1021/es102273t

Cited by 170 publications

(138 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…24 From previous work 22 we indentify two different patterns of in-use-stocks of steel: a) a saturation after a certain time at a level of (10±2) ton/cap as seen in the US, the UK, and France and b) a continued linear growth in time as seen in Japan, Australia, and…”

Section: Parameter Estimation and Scenario Analysismentioning

confidence: 95%

“…This reflects the slackness of the residential building stock better than a normal distribution. Based on previous studies, 22 We propose a set of 6 simple scenarios to depict future development. An overview on the major parameters is included in Figure 2.…”

Section: Parameter Estimation and Scenario Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Historic iron flows and stocks in China from 1900 to 2009 have been analyzed by Wang et al 21 Their findings, combined with historic patterns of stock development observed in industrialized countries, 22 are used as basis to perform a stock-driven quantification of the future Chinese steel cycle and to explore the development of material demand and supply in China throughout the 21 st century. We extend existing models to cover the whole anthropogenic iron cycle in China, and distinguish between primary and secondary steel production in particular.…”

Section: ) Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Moving Toward the Circular Economy: The Role of Stocks in the Chinese Steel Cycle

Pauliuk

Wang

Müller

2011

Environ. Sci. Technol.

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204

139

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As the world's largest CO 2 emitter and steel producer, China seems to be far from reaching the goal of a Circular Economy which comprises a reconciliation of economic development with environmental concerns and potential resource scarcities. This work examines corresponding transition pathways in the Chinese steel sector using a dynamic material flow analysis for the time until 2100 that highlights the role of stocks for moving towards a Circular Economy. If the per-capita steel stock saturates at 8-12 tons, as historic inuse stock patterns in industrialized countries suggest, consumption can be expected to peak between 2015 and 2020, whereupon it is likely to drop by up to 40% during the years until 2050. A slower stock growth could mitigate the peak and lower potential overcapacity in

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Section: Parameter Estimation and Scenario Analysismentioning

confidence: 95%

Section: Parameter Estimation and Scenario Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: ) Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Moving Toward the Circular Economy: The Role of Stocks in the Chinese Steel Cycle

Pauliuk

Wang

Müller

2011

Environ. Sci. Technol.

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204

139

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“…Müller et al 36 showed that iron use appears to have reached a plateau of 8-12 t per capita in France, the United Kingdom, and the United States ( Figure 3 ). In other countries, a plateau has yet to be reached.…”

Section: Evolutionary Demand Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Will metal scarcity impede routine industrial use?

Graedel

Erdmann

2012

MRS Bull.

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The dynamism of metal extraction and useAs recently as 20 or 30 years ago, designers of most manufactured products drew from a palette of a dozen or so metals. That situation has changed remarkably, as modern technology employs virtually the entire periodic table. A few examples illustrate this point: turbine-blade alloys and coatings make use of more than a dozen metals; 1 thousands of components are assembled into a single notebook computer; and medical equipment, medical diagnostics, and other high-level technological products incorporate more than 70 metals.2 This transformation is the result of the continuing search for better materials performance. To improve operational characteristics, 60 or so metals are incorporated into each microchip, 3 and microchips are increasingly embedded into industrial plants, means of transportation, building equipment and appliances, consumer products, and other devices. 4 It is thus increasingly important to determine whether reliable supplies of all of these metals are available, because a product designer might wish to employ a material that is not available in suffi cient quantity or at a suitable price when it is needed. 5During the Industrial Revolution, vast metal deposits became accessible. Since then, wars or cartels have occasionally disrupted supplies for short periods, but the markets have always been restored over time. More recently, however, challenges to medium-or long-term supplies of a number of metals 6,7 have led to increasing unease. This state of mind was reinforced in 2011 by a committee of the American Physical Society and the Materials Research Society that identifi ed several elements, including 10 rare earth elements, as potentially critical for energy-related technologies. 8 Metals, in particular, are being extracted at increasing rates ( Figure 1 ), and end-of-life recycling rates for many of them are low to dismal.10 Moreover, for products with long service lifetimes such as turbine generators or high-speed locomotives, a stable set of materials must be available for maintenance and repair over several decades. It is therefore reasonable to ask: "Will supplies of any materials run out? If so, what and when?" In this article, we explore these questions by examining the present state of metal supply and demand, reviewing various studies of future needs, and then addressing potential limitations in response to those needs. Finally, we discuss some strategies and policies that corporations and governments might wish to consider in response to this information. Supply considerations Mining and processingMetals are not uniformly accessible in nature. Some metals form their own minerals, whereas some occur only in the lattices of other principal minerals (e.g., gallium in the aluminum ore bauxite). Average crustal abundance is not a good measure of overall availability, because geological processes create concentrations of individual elements or groups of elements Will metal scarcity impede routine industrial use? T.E. Graedel and Lorenz ErdmannMateria...

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“…This has given rise to a literature on the analysis of material stocks, including steel stocks in various nations [8], steel in the building stock [9] and materials in housing [10]. Evidence that per capita requirements for steel stocks saturate at around 10 tonnes per person [8] suggests that developed economies such as the UK could feasibly operate a closed-cycle for steel, whereas developing economies such as China and India cannot do this until their stocks have grown further. -Material substitution: Ashby [11] provides an evidence base for examining the potential for using materials other than those commonly used today.…”

Section: Motivations For Materials Efficiencymentioning

confidence: 99%

Material efficiency: providing material services with less material production

Allwood

Ashby

Gutowski

et al. 2013

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

125

115

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Material efficiency, as discussed in this Meeting Issue, entails the pursuit of the technical strategies, business models, consumer preferences and policy instruments that would lead to a substantial reduction in the production of high-volume energy-intensive materials required to deliver human well-being. This paper, which introduces a Discussion Meeting Issue on the topic of material efficiency, aims to give an overview of current thinking on the topic, spanning environmental, engineering, economics, sociology and policy issues. The motivations for material efficiency include reducing energy demand, reducing the emissions and other environmental impacts of industry, and increasing national resource security. There are many technical strategies that might bring it about, and these could mainly be implemented today if preferred by customers or producers. However, current economic structures favour the substitution of material for labour, and consumer preferences for material consumption appear to continue even beyond the point at which increased consumption provides any increase in well-being. Therefore, policy will be required to stimulate material efficiency. A theoretically ideal policy measure, such as a carbon price, would internalize the externality of emissions associated with material production, and thus motivate change directly. However, implementation of such a measure has proved elusive, and instead the adjustment of existing government purchasing policies or existing regulations— for instance to do with building design, planning or vehicle standards—is likely to have a more immediate effect.

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Patterns of Iron Use in Societal Evolution

Cited by 170 publications

References 24 publications

Moving Toward the Circular Economy: The Role of Stocks in the Chinese Steel Cycle

Moving Toward the Circular Economy: The Role of Stocks in the Chinese Steel Cycle

Will metal scarcity impede routine industrial use?

Material efficiency: providing material services with less material production

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