Patterns of Development in Children’s Scientific Reasoning: Results from a Three-Year Longitudinal Study

Abstract

Scientific reasoning refers to the thinking skills involved in conceiving and conducting an investigation. This study examined how proficiency in performing these skills develops during the upper-elementary school years. A sample of 157 children (age 7-10) took a performancebased scientific reasoning test in three consecutive years. Four distinct developmental patterns emerged from their annual test scores, which were independent of prior domain knowledge and sociodemographic characteristics except gender. Developmental patterns in scientific reasoning and reading comprehension, but not math, were related such that many children with a high entry level or accelerated growth in scientific reasoning also performed better and progressed more in reading comprehension. These results indicate that scientific reasoning develops differently in same-age children, largely independent of personal characteristics but generally comparable with reading comprehension.

The complex associations between children’s scientific reasoning and advanced theory of mind

“…This study found that scientific reasoning developed overall linearly, with significant developmental progression between all grades of elementary school and no large clusters of children with nonlinear development. In line with previous longitudinal work in 8-to 10-year-olds (Lazonder et al, 2020), there was a group of children with nonlinearly developing scientificreasoning abilities (Cluster 1), who can be described as "late bloomers." These children revealed no progress in scientific reasoning between K1 and G1, but a steep increase between G1 and G3.…”

“…One of the few longitudinal studies that addresses scientific reasoning in late elementary school (involving children aged 8-10 years) found four distinct developmental patterns: high and low achievers, and early and late bloomers. These patterns were independent of domain knowledge, math abilities, and the parental education level, and only weakly correlated with the developmental patterns for reading abilities (Lazonder et al, 2020), making it impossible to predict which children would be high or low achiever, or early or late bloomers. Research is needed to identify the beneficial and necessary starting conditions influencing the onset of the development of scientific reasoning.…”

“…Based on cross-sectional findings showing robust associations between general cognitive abilities, parental education level, and individual differences in scientific reasoning (e.g., Koerber, Mayer, et al, 2015), and longitudinal findings of no clear links between academic achievement and developmental trajectories of scientific reasoning (Lazonder et al, 2020), we expected that child and family variables would significantly affect individual differences but not the development of scientific reasoning. Based on cross-sectional findings that there are almost no children with mature scientific-reasoning abilities but no rToM (Osterhaus et al, 2017), we expected that rToM would predict subsequent scientific-reasoning abilities in early elementary school.…”

“…Following Lazonder et al (2020), we started with a two-cluster solution and increased the number of clusters until no additional patterns with a case frequency > 1 emerged. This analysis revealed 7 clusters (Figure 4).…”

“…The complex associations between scientific reasoning and advanced theory of mind Scientific reasoning is a key 21 st -century skill (e.g., Trilling & Fadel, 2009), and its emergence in elementary school has been widely researched (see e.g., Zimmerman, 2007). Most developmental research on scientific reasoning is cross-sectional, and few longitudinal studies have been conducted in middle childhood (however, see Lazonder et al, 2020), resulting in large knowledge gaps regarding the specific mechanisms that underlie the development of early scientific reasoning. This paper reports on a six-wave longitudinal study of the effects of general cognitive abilities and mindreading skills on the development of scientific reasoning in children aged 5-10 years.…”