Patterns of Asian Winter Climate Variability and Links to Arctic Sea Ice

Abstract

23This paper describes two dominant patterns of Asian winter climate variability: the 24 Siberian high (SH) pattern and the Asia-Arctic (AA) pattern. The former depicts atmospheric 25 variability closely associated with the intensity of the Siberian high, and the latter 26 characterizes the teleconnection pattern of atmospheric variability between Asia and the 27 Arctic, which is distinct from the Arctic Oscillation (AO). The AA pattern plays more 28 important roles in regulating winter precipitation and the 850 hPa meridional wind component 29 over East Asia than the SH pattern, which controls surface air temperature variability over 30 East Asia. 31 In the Arctic Ocean and its marginal seas, sea ice loss in both autumn and winter could 32 bring the positive phase of the SH pattern, or cause the negative phase of the AA pattern. The 33 latter corresponds to a weakened East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and enhanced winter 34 precipitation in the mid-latitudes of the Asian continent and East Asia. For the SH pattern, sea 35 ice loss in the prior autumn emerges in the Siberian marginal seas, and winter loss mainly 36 occurs in the Barents Sea, Labrador Sea, and Davis Strait. For the AA pattern, sea ice loss in 37 the prior autumn is observed in the Barents-Kara Seas, the western Laptev Sea, and the 38 Beaufort Sea, and winter loss only occurs in some areas of the Barents Sea, the Labrador Sea, 39 and Davis Strait. Simulation experiments with observed sea ice forcing also support that 40 Arctic sea ice loss may favor frequent occurrence of the negative phase of the AA pattern. The 41 results also imply that the relationship between Arctic sea ice loss and winter atmospheric 42 variability over East Asia is unstable, which is a challenge for predicting the EAWM based on 43 Arctic sea ice loss.44 3

Using NWP to assess the influence of the Arctic atmosphere on midlatitude weather and climate

“…The latter indicates a weakening of the East Asian winter monsoon. This has been associated with sea-ice loss in the Barents Sea/Kara Sea in the preceding autumn (Wu et al, 2015). However, in the present study, it is not sea-ice loss driving the stronger pathway from the Kara Sea to West Asia, as the following consideration indicates.…”

Tropical Indian Ocean warming contributions to China winter climate trends since 1960

“…Arctic sea ice has been declining in boreal autumn and winter during recent decades (Vaughan et al 2013). Observational and simulation studies demonstrate that the Arctic sea ice decline can induce a negative AO response (Wu and Zhang 2010;Liu et al 2012;Kim et al 2014) and a strengthened Siberian High and East Asian trough (Wu et al 2011Zuo et al 2016), and thus a cold Eurasia winter (Mori et al 2014;Wu et al 2015;Zuo et al 2016). The AMIP ensemble results in 1998-2014 support the hypothesis that Arctic sea ice loss might partly contribute to a recent recovery of Siberia High and cold winters in China (Gao et al 2015;Wu et al 2015;Zuo et al 2016).…”

“…Observational and simulation studies demonstrate that the Arctic sea ice decline can induce a negative AO response (Wu and Zhang 2010;Liu et al 2012;Kim et al 2014) and a strengthened Siberian High and East Asian trough (Wu et al 2011Zuo et al 2016), and thus a cold Eurasia winter (Mori et al 2014;Wu et al 2015;Zuo et al 2016). The AMIP ensemble results in 1998-2014 support the hypothesis that Arctic sea ice loss might partly contribute to a recent recovery of Siberia High and cold winters in China (Gao et al 2015;Wu et al 2015;Zuo et al 2016). Meanwhile, the TIWP-EA wave train, including the anticyclonic anomaly from Siberia into East Central China and cyclonic anomaly over inland China, suggests that both TIO warming and Arctic sea ice decline might contribute to recent extreme winter events such as unusually severe cold surges and prolonged ice storms in South China in and 2016(Ding et al 2014.…”

“…1, 2). However, since the late 1990s there has been a fast Siberia High recovery with a stronger EAWM and winter cooling in China (Jeong et al 2011;Wang and Chen 2014), which may be associated with an increase in Eurasian snow cover or Arctic sea ice loss in the last two decades (Jeong et al 2011;Wu et al 2011Wu et al , 2015. In South China, where the average winter temperature is above 5 °C (Fig.…”

Sea and Freshwater Ice Concentration from VIIRS on Suomi NPP and the Future JPSS Satellites

“…Sea ice interacts with other physical components in the polar climate system. Studies have linked the shrinking of summer/fall sea ice with surface warming [6], a less stable lower troposphere [7], increased cloud amount [8,9], mid-latitude weather and extreme events through teleconnection between Arctic and mid-latitude [10][11][12], and other changes [13].…”