Patterns of abundance across geographical ranges as a predictor for responses to climate change: Evidence from UK rocky shores

Abstract

Aim Understanding patterns in the abundance of species across thermal ranges can give useful insights into the potential impacts of climate change. The abundant‐centre hypothesis suggests that species will reach peak abundance at the centre of their thermal range where conditions are optimal, but evidence in support of this hypothesis is mixed and limited in geographical and taxonomic scope. We tested the applicability of the abundant‐centre hypothesis across a range of intertidal organisms using a large, citizen science‐generated data set. Location UK. Methods Species' abundance records were matched with their location within their thermal range. Patterns in abundance distribution for individual species, and across aggregated species abundances, were analysed using Kruskal–Wallis tests and quantile general additive models. Results Individually, invertebrate species showed increasing abundances in the cooler half of the thermal range and decreasing abundances in the warmer half of the thermal range. The overall shape for aggregated invertebrate species abundances reflected a broad peak, with a cool‐skewed maximum abundance. Algal species showed little evidence for an abundant‐centre distribution individually, but overall the aggregated species abundances suggested a hump‐backed abundance distribution. Main Conclusions Our study follows others in showing mixed support for the abundant‐centre hypothesis at an individual species level, but demonstrates an increased predictability in species responses when an aggregated overall response is considered.

Rocky shores as tractable test systems for experimental ecology

“…This approach is becoming more common in marine and coastal environments (Hughes et al, 2014;Cigliano & Ballard, 2017) and is increasingly being used to support policy and management (Hyder et al, 2015;Townhill & Hyder, 2017). For rocky shores, most examples relate to descriptive observations or monitoring of biodiversity (Delaney et al, 2008;Vye et al, 2020), but more recently experimental approaches (e.g. www.capturingourcoast.co.uk) and internet-based citizen science (e.g.…”

“…Ease of access to rocky shores has made them amenable to citizen science, where volunteers carry out scientific tasks (Delaney et al ., 2008; Dickinson et al ., 2012; Vye et al ., 2020) such as sample collection, processing and analysis. This is not a new concept, with examples of bird surveys that have been done by citizen scientists for over 100 years (Silvertown, 2009).…”

Impacts of Pervasive Climate Change and Extreme Events on Rocky Intertidal Communities: Evidence From Long-Term Data

“…Rocky intertidal habitats around the United Kingdom coastline have been studied throughout the last century, providing a rich legacy of biological and biogeographical data unrivalled across the globe (see Southward et al, 2004 for review). The United Kingdom straddles the boreal-lusitanian biogeographic transition zone (Forbes, 1858;Lewis, 1964), providing a rich tapestry of habitats, communities and species with which to study the effects of pervasive climate change and extreme events on organisms from a range of evolutionary origins (Vye et al, 2020), including invasive non-native invasive species (NIS) (Mieszkowska et al, 2014a;Firth et al, 2020).…”

Marine Citizen Science: Current State in Europe and New Technological Developments

“…Yet, because of the vastness of the marine domain, the collaboration between large numbers of nonscientists and scientists is particularly urgent and important. Building on precise protocols (Benedetti-Cecchi et al, 2018) and on instrumental developments, the citizen involvement in coastal zone (Vye et al, 2020) and open sea projects is growing. Given the scale of marine environmental threats and the relatively limited resources to fill the knowledge gaps, citizen science approaches in conjunction with new technologies should increasingly be considered to complement the scientific efforts in the marine regions.…”

“…Citizens by mapping habitats and ecosystems; by determination of abundance and distribution of coastal and invasive species, by reports on water levels changes or by monitoring marine debris, in marine conservation projects demonstrate the scientific value of citizen monitoring (Harley et al, 2019). Using smartphone technologies citizen scientists increase the temporal and spatial data acquisition scales and play an important role in monitoring marine protected areas, coastlines and intertidal zones (Vye et al, 2020).…”