Patterns in acute aortic dissection and a connection to meteorological conditions in Germany

Abstract

Acute type A aortic dissection (ATAAD) is a dramatic emergency exhibiting a mortality of 50% within the first 48 hours if not operated. This study found an absolute value of cosine-like seasonal variation pattern for Germany with significantly fewer ATAAD events (Wilcoxon test) for the warm months of June, July, and August from 2005 to 2015. Many studies suspect a connection between ATAAD events and weather conditions. Using ERA5 reanalysis data and an objective weather type classification in a contingency table approach showed that for Germany, significantly more ATAAD events occurred during lower temperatures (by about 4.8 K), lower water vapor pressure (by about 2.6 hPa), and prevailing wind patterns from the northeast. In addition, we used data from a classification scheme for human-biometeorological weather conditions which was not used before in ATAAD studies. For the German region of Berlin and Brandenburg, for 2006 to 2019, the proportion of days with ATAAD events during weather conditions favoring hypertension (cold air advection, in the center of a cyclone, conditions with cold stress or thermal comfort) was significantly increased by 13% (Chi-squared test for difference of proportions). In contrast, the proportion was decreased by 19% for conditions associated with a higher risk for patients with hypotension and therefore a lower risk for patients with hypertension (warm air advection ahead of warm fronts, conditions with no thermal stress or heat stress, in the center of a cyclone with thermal stress). As many studies have shown that hypertension is a risk factor for ATAAD, our findings support the hypothesized relation between ATAAD and hypertension-favoring weather conditions.