Patterns and causes of uncertainty in the American Community Survey

Spielman, Seth E.; Folch, David C.; Nagle, Nicholas N.

doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2013.11.002

Cited by 215 publications

(146 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…This aligns with life course analysis that shows people gain income after age 18 and peak around age 65 before starting to decline again (Tamborini, Kim, and Sakamoto 2015). We acknowledge the uncertainty inherent in ACS data (Spielman, Folch, and Nagle 2014), but contend that our analysis may underestimate poverty rates (Bazuin and Fraser 2013). Our assumption of constant enrollment rates, which assumes "stalled development" is likely an overestimate of the proportion of the future population with low educational attainment (KC and Lutz 2014), however, projecting multiple scenarios of future educational attainment was beyond the scope of this study.…”

Section: Low Education and Poverty Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 77%

Social vulnerability projections improve sea-level rise risk assessments

Hardy

Hauer

2018

Applied Geography

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Rising seas will impact millions of coastal residents in coming decades. The vulnerability of coastal populations exposed to inundation will be greater for some sub-populations due to differences in their socio-demographic characteristics. Many climate risk and vulnerability assessments, however, model current populations against future environments. We advance sealevel rise risk assessments by dynamically modeling environmental change and sociodemographic change. We project three scenarios of inundation exposure due to future sea-level rise in coastal Georgia from 2010 to 2050. We align the sea-level rise projections with five population projection scenarios of socially vulnerable sub-populations via the Hamilton-Perry method and the theory of demographic metabolism. Our combined fast sea-level rise and middle population scenarios project a near doubling of the population exposed, and a more than fivefold increase for those at risk (i.e., residing in a census tract with high social vulnerability) and most at risk (i.e., high social vulnerability and high exposure) compared to the same estimate based on 2010 population data. Of vulnerable sub-populations, women had the largest absolute increase in exposure for all scenario combinations. The Hispanic/Latinx population's exposure increased the largest proportionally under the fast and medium sea-level rise projections and elderly people's (65+) under the slow sea-level rise scenario. Our findings suggest that for coastal areas experiencing rapid growth (or declines) in more socially vulnerable subpopulations, estimates based on current population data are likely to underestimate (or overestimate) the proportion of such groups' risk to inundation from future sea-level rise.

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Section: Low Education and Poverty Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 77%

Social vulnerability projections improve sea-level rise risk assessments

Hardy

Hauer

2018

Applied Geography

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“…In the United States there are large margins of error in the ACS data at the block group level, and there are arguments for using data at the census track level (Spielman et al 2014, Bazuin & Frazier 2013, even though there is a loss in spatial precision when units are overlaid on exposure categories. 7 Thus, the highest resolution units introduce uncertainty owing to the small household sample sizes.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Social vulnerability to floods in two coastal megacities: New York City and Mumbai

Sherbinin¹,

Bardy²

2016

Populationyearbook

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In this paper we assess differential exposure to flooding in two coastal megacities, New York and Mumbai, both of which suffered major flood-related disasters in the past decade. Specifically, we examine whether the most exposed populations are also the most socially vulnerable. First, we developed Social Vulnerability Indices (SoVIs) for each city with census data. We then overlaid the SoVI scores onto flood extent maps for Hurricane Sandy (New York, October 2012) and the Mumbai flash floods (July 2005), as well as for the evacuation zones for New York, to examine patterns of differential exposure. Our results suggest a degree of differential exposure in New York, especially in the highest flood risk areas, and provide fairly clear evidence for differential exposure in Mumbai. However, differences in the input resolution and confidence in the datasets for Mumbai make the results more uncertain. The paper concludes with a discussion of the policy implications and the data needs for urban spatial vulnerability assessments.

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“…However, ACS estimates at the census block group scale are based on a much lower sample size than the decennial census. This results in a high margin of error that makes the ACS estimates unreliable for many variables (Spielman et al 2014). …”

Section: Identifying Social Vulnerability Determinantsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flood recovery and property acquisition in Cedar Rapids, Iowa

et al. 2015

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Voluntary property acquisitions are playing an increasingly prominent role in the aftermath of US flood disasters, as policy tools for community recovery and hazard mitigation. Following historic flooding in 2008, the City of Cedar Rapids, Iowa, instituted a federally supported program for the acquisition of over 1300 damaged properties. Using Cedar Rapids as a case study, this article investigates post-flood property acquisition from the perspectives of cost effectiveness and social equity. To assess economic viability, a benefit-cost analysis was performed at the parcel scale. Social equity was assessed using a social vulnerability index tailored to flood recovery. The results indicate that the property acquisitions are cost effective based on the avoidance of future flood losses, and prioritize socially vulnerable neighborhoods. The dual economic and social analysis sheds light on the capacity of federally supported buyouts to support holistic post-disaster planning and decision-making.

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Patterns and causes of uncertainty in the American Community Survey

Cited by 215 publications

References 17 publications

Social vulnerability projections improve sea-level rise risk assessments

Social vulnerability projections improve sea-level rise risk assessments

Social vulnerability to floods in two coastal megacities: New York City and Mumbai

Flood recovery and property acquisition in Cedar Rapids, Iowa

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