Pathways toward a Decarbonized Future—Impact on Security of Supply and System Stability in a Sustainable German Energy System

Abstract

Pathways leading to a carbon neutral future for the German energy system have to deal with the expected phase-out of coal-fired power generation, in addition to the shutdown of nuclear power plants and the rapid ramp-up of photovoltaics and wind power generation. An analysis of the expected impact on electricity market, security of supply, and system stability must consider the European context because of the strong coupling—both from an economic and a system operation point of view—through the cross-border power exchange of Germany with its neighbors. This analysis, complemented by options to improve the existing development plans, is the purpose of this paper. We propose a multilevel energy system modeling, including electricity market, network congestion management, and system stability, to identify challenges for the years 2023 and 2035. Out of the results, we would like to highlight the positive role of innovative combined heat and power (CHP) solutions securing power and heat supply, the importance of a network congestion management utilizing flexibility from sector coupling, and the essential network extension plans. Network congestion and reduced security margins will become the new normal. We conclude that future energy systems require expanded flexibilities in combination with forward planning of operation.

Flexibility provision by combined heat and power plants – An evaluation of benefits from a plant and system perspective

“…Other factors that support the use of CHP plants in future energy systems have been identified in previous studies. CHP plants have been recognized as having positive impacts on securing power and heat supplies and on network congestion management [55,59], although they might need support schemes to create sufficiently secure investment conditions [60]. On the other hand, if the biomass price increases significantly relative to heat and electricity prices, CHP plant competitiveness will decrease, unless other incentives for using biomass in CHP units are introduced.…”

How will local energy markets influence the pan-European day-ahead market and transmission systems? A case study for local markets in France and Germany

“…The considered scenario is based on the scenario year 2035, already taking into account a full German coal phase-out [59]. This scenario year allows the investigation of local energy markets with a high penetration of decentralized flexibility.…”

“…Installed capacities for the rest of Europe are taken from TYNDP 2018, scenario Sustainable Transition (as linear interpolation of 2030 and 2040) [2]. European power plant capacities are adjusted and regionalized based on [59]. In addition, power plant capacities in France are adjusted and regionalized according to the VOLT scenario [62].…”

“…The year 2012 is assumed as the base weather year for generation and load time series. Prices of energy sources are based on the IHS Rivalry Scenario 2018 [63], the Projection Report 2019 for Germany (lignite) [64], and the World Energy Outlook 2017 [59,65]. Additionally, we assume a CO2 price of 76, 5 EUR/tCO2.…”