Pathways to seismic hazard evaluation: Extreme and characteristic earthquakes in areas of low and high seismicity

Burton, Paul W.

doi:10.1007/bf00124583

Cited by 16 publications

(6 citation statements)

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“…The model is well minimum waiting time required for its accumulation is described by Bath (1973), Makropoulos & Burton (1983) T,=54 years. The strain energy in the HVA as a whole and Burton (1990), and is founded on Galanopoulos (1972).…”

Section: (B) Illustrates the Effect Of Including Foreshocks Andmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seismicity in the Hellenic Volcanic Arc: relation between seismic parameters and the geophysical fields in the region

Tsapanos¹,

Galanopoulos²,

Burton³

1994

Geophysical Journal International

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S U M M A R YA study of the spatial distribution of seismicity and seismic hazard and geophysical parameters is undertaken along the Hellenic Volcanic Arc (HVA). Seismicity of the area is divided in a cellular manner allowing analysis of the localized seismicity parameters and representation of their regional variation as contour maps. Extreme value analysis locates a zone of highest seismicity just west of centre of the HVA, around the Cyclades Islands. Non-probabilistic modelling of the strain energy release process in terms of magnitudes equivalent to the average annual energy release rate (M,) and the maximum possible energy release in a seismic cycle (M3) enhances this picture. Maximum values of M, and M3 are more tightly localized in the central Cyclades west of Amorgos Island and also in the east of the HVA in the Sporadhes north-west of Rhodes. Isocyclic contours of the waiting times for M3 show values in excess of 70 years in the Cyclades and eastern Sporadhes, i.e. the zones of largest earthquakes show the longest strain accumulation periods. The waiting time for the HVA as a whole is about 54 years, and at present it appears to be about 75 per cent through to accumulation of the notional maximum strain energy. The b value of the magnitude-frequency distribution shows a consistent spatial variation along the HVA which is not sensitive to subdivision into different focal depth ranges. Regional contour maps of the b values, and maps of local values of heat flow, magnetic and electrical anomalies compared with the Bouguer gravity anomaly map, indicate correlations which reflect the deformation of the Aegean shallow crust in relation to the deep intrusive magmatic processes. The correlations between the different geophysical fields are displaced commensurate with an Aegean extension of approximately 45 km.

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Section: (B) Illustrates the Effect Of Including Foreshocks Andmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seismicity in the Hellenic Volcanic Arc: relation between seismic parameters and the geophysical fields in the region

Tsapanos¹,

Galanopoulos²,

Burton³

1994

Geophysical Journal International

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“…The evaluation of Gumbel's third distribution has been used widely to determine extreme magnitude [9,13] because of the physical realistic upper bound at higher magnitudes. The fact that there is a finite limit to the build up of strain energy is an inescapable physical reality [14]. A similar analogy can be stated for earthquake intensity.…”

Section: Intensitymentioning

confidence: 92%

Seismic hazard and risk in Shanghai and estimation of expected building damage

Cole

Burton

2008

Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering

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The People's Republic of China is in the process of rapid demographic, economic and urban change including nationwide engineering and building construction at an unprecedented scale. The mega-city of Shanghai is at the centre of China's modernisation. Rapid urbanisation and building growth have increased the exposure of people and property to natural disasters. The seismic hazard of Shanghai and its vicinity is presented from a seismogenic free-zone methodology. A PGA value of 49 cm s À2 and a maximum intensity value of VII for the Chinese Seismic Intensity Scale (a scale similar to the Modified Mercalli) for a 99% probability of non-exceedance in 50 years are determined for Shanghai city. The potential building damage for three independent districts of the city centre named Putuo, Nanjing Road and Pudong are calculated using damage vulnerability matrices. It is found that old civil houses of brick and timber are the most vulnerable buildings with potentially a mean probability value of 7.4% of this building structure type exhibiting the highest damage grade at intensity VII. Crown

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“…In other words, this determines the earthquake that is most likely to be perceived or felt at any level of ground motion at a site or in a region and is therefore a characteristic property of the region (Burton, 1990). …”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional seismic hazard for Revithoussa, Greece: an earthquake early warning Shield and selection of alert signals

Burton

Tselentis

2003

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The feasibility of an earthquake early warning Shield in Greece is being explored as a European demonstration project. This will be the first early warning system in Europe. The island of Revithoussa is a liquid natural gas storage facility near Athens from which a pipeline runs to a gas distribution centre in Athens. The Shield is being centred on these facilities. The purpose here is to analyze seismicity and seismic hazard in relation to the Shield centre and the remote sensor sites in the Shield network, eventually to help characterize the hazard levels, seismic signals and ground vibration levels that might be observed or create an alert situation at a station. Thus this paper mainly gives estimation of local seismic hazard in the regional working area of Revithoussa by studying extreme peak ground acceleration (PGA) and magnitudes.Within the Shield region, the most important zone to be detected is WNW from the Shield centre and is at a relatively short distance (50 km or less), the Gulf of Corinth (active normal faults) region. This is the critical zone for early warning of strong ground shaking. A second key region of seismicity is at an intermediate distance (100 km or more) from the centre, the Hellenic seismic zone south or southeast from Peloponnisos. A third region to be detected would be the northeastern region from the centre and is at a relatively long distance (about 150 km), Lemnos Island and neighboring region. Several parameters are estimated to characterize the seismicity and hazard. These include: the 50-year PGA with 90% probability of not being exceeded (pnbe) using Theodulidis & Papazachos strong motion attenuation for Greece, PGA NTP ; the 50-year magnitude and also at the 90% pnbe, M 50 and M P50 , respectively. There are also estimates of the earthquake that is most likely to be felt at a damaging intensity level, these are the most perceptible earthquakes at intensities VI, VII and VIII with magnitudes M VI , M VII and M VIII . Example results (from many) include the corresponding parameters describing the hazard for Revithoussa as follows: PGA NTP : 203 cm s −2 , M 50 : 6.5, M p50 : 6.9, M VI : 5.8, Correspondence to: Y. Xu (y.b.xu@uea.ac.uk) M VII : 6.1 and M VIII : 6.4. These data are also useful in selecting expected alert-signals i.e. examples of strong ground vibration histories that might be expected at a Shield station in the alert situation.

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Pathways to seismic hazard evaluation: Extreme and characteristic earthquakes in areas of low and high seismicity

Cited by 16 publications

References 16 publications

Seismicity in the Hellenic Volcanic Arc: relation between seismic parameters and the geophysical fields in the region

Seismicity in the Hellenic Volcanic Arc: relation between seismic parameters and the geophysical fields in the region

Seismic hazard and risk in Shanghai and estimation of expected building damage

Regional seismic hazard for Revithoussa, Greece: an earthquake early warning Shield and selection of alert signals

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