Pathways to Prison in New York State

Abstract

Research Summary In this study, we use a novel application of group‐based trajectory modeling to estimate pathways to prison for a sample of 13,769 first‐time prison inmates in New York State. We found that 12% of the sample was heavily involved in the criminal justice system for 10 years prior to their first imprisonment. We also found that less than one quarter of the sample had little contact with the criminal justice system prior to the arrest that resulted in imprisonment. Policy Implications Slightly less than one quarter of first‐time inmates are not known to the criminal justice system prior to the commitment arrest. For these inmates, crime‐prevention interventions that identify participants through criminal justice processes will not be effective. However, the arrest rates for a substantial portion of the sample over the 10‐year period before imprisonment suggest a staggering number of opportunities for intervention as these individuals churn through the system.

Altering Trajectories Through Community‐Based Justice Reinvestment

“…Tahamont, Yan, Bushway, and Liu (, this issue) use group‐based trajectory modeling to identify trajectories of groups of offenders incarcerated for the first time at age 26 or older. Although they find many different pathways to prison, the two key insights to be gleaned from this work are that (a) a relatively small group of offenders (approximately 12%) has many contacts with the criminal justice system prior to first incarceration and (b) a somewhat larger group (around 24%) has very little criminal justice system exposure prior to first incarceration.…”

“…Indeed, Tahamont et al. () offer no specific policy recommendations, instead they offer some general observations related to the potential of crime prevention approaches for different types of trajectories.…”

“…In a more policy‐oriented footnote, Tahamont et al. () allude to the relatively recent efforts to reduce our reliance on incarceration noting that strategies offered for reducing prison populations in the United States have tended to take one of three approaches: Restricting the use of incarceration through eliminating mandatory sentences and mandatory minimums Reducing recidivism through targeted programming for incarcerated offenders Reducing crime through investment in social programs …”

Toward a Criminology of Prison Downsizing

“…Sarah Tahamont, Shi Yan, Shawn D. Bushway, and Jing Liu (, this issue) tackle the need for prison reform by investigating the justice histories of a large sample of people who entered the New York prison system for the first time. Studying individuals entering prisons for the first time is interesting because preventing them from going to prison will have a significant impact on the prison population.…”

“…Tahamont et al. () argue that people who enter prison for the first time do so through identifiable “pathways.” Some get there because of serious crimes. But for a substantial minority, the first experience of prison follows a long history of involvement with the justice system.…”