Pathways for China's sustainable energy transition: Examining the effects of exchange rate volatility on renewable energy investment

Abstract

The relationship between exchange rate volatility (ERV) and other macroeconomic factors, including trade flows, domestic production, inflation, money demand, and economic growth, has remained a topic of a large number of studies in international finance. However, the research question that the past empirics have overlooked is whether ERV has any role in helping an emerging economy like China in its journey toward a renewable energy transition. To answer this question, this analysis intends to scrutinize the nexus between ERV and renewable energy investment (REI) in China over 1991Q1-2021Q4. Moreover, due to the asymmetric behavior of ERV, we have based our analysis on the asymmetric assumption. For analyzing the short and long-run impacts of ERV on REI in China, we used the linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and nonlinear ARDL methods. In the long term, the ARDL model predicts that stricter environmental policies and higher GDP will lead to more investment in renewable energy. As far as the nonlinear model is concerned, the long-term negative change in ERV does not affect REIs, whereas a long-term positive change in ERV reduces such investments. Likewise, unfavorable short-term exchange rate shocks encourage REI while positive short-term shocks discourage such development. Moreover, investment in renewable energy is bolstered by GDP, environmental policy strictness, and financial development, but is dampened by CO2 emissions in the short term in both models. On the basis of these results, we suggest that policymakers should consider implementing measures to stabilize exchange rates to promote investment in renewable energy.