Pathways and Determinants of Atrocity Criminalization

Abstract

This chapter presents a new, comprehensive dataset on the global spread of atrocity laws. It uses time-series statistical analyses to systematically test the book’s theory of atrocity criminalization against alternative explanations on global patterns of cases. The results provide strong support for four expectations that follow from the book’s main arguments. First, more democratic governments are more likely than autocratic ones to criminalize atrocities through targeted legislation. Second, on its own, the adoption of a new criminal code in a given state of any regime type greatly increases the likelihood that the state criminalizes atrocity offenses. Third, when governments do adopt new criminal codes, they are more likely to include atrocity offenses if the types of sources from which drafters are likely to borrow favor atrocity criminalization. Specifically, higher rates of atrocity law diffusion among regional legal peers and greater levels of embeddedness in networks influenced by the International Association of Penal Law are associated with greater likelihoods of including atrocity offenses in new criminal codes. Finally, the determinants of criminalization through criminal code reform are different than those of criminalization through targeted legislation, supporting the claim that these two pathways are the products of distinct behavioral dynamics.