Pathway towards achieving 100% renewable electricity by 2050 for South Africa

Abstract

Transition to a cost effective and fossil carbon-free energy system is imminent for South Africa, so is the mitigation of issues associated with the 'water-energy nexus' and their consequent impacts on the climate. The country's key fossil carbon mitigation option lies in the energy sector, especially in shifting away from the coal-dependent power system. Pathways towards a fully decarbonised and least cost electricity system are investigated for South Africa. The energy transition is simulated for five scenarios, assessing the impact of various factors such as sector coupling, with and without greenhouse gas (GHG) emission costs. South Africa's energy transition is simulated using an hourly resolved model until 2050. This modelling approach synthesises and reflects in-depth insights of how the demand from the power sector can be met. The optimisation for each 5-year time period is carried out based on assumed costs and technological status until 2050. The modelling outcomes reveal that solar PV and wind energy, supplying about 71% and 28% of the demand respectively in the Best Policy Scenario for 2050, can overcome coal dependency of the power sector. The levelised cost of electricity increases just slightly from 49.2 €/MWh in 2015 to 50.8 €/MWh in the Best Policy Scenario, whereas it increases significantly to 104.9 €/MWh in the Current Policy Scenario by 2050. Further, without considering GHG emissions costs, the cost of electricity slightly increases from 44.1 €/MWh in 2015 to 47.1 €/MWh in the Best Policy Scenario and increases up to 62.8 €/MWh in the Current Policy Scenario by 2050. The cost of electricity is 25% lower in the Best Policy Scenario than in the Current Policy Scenario without factoring in GHG emissions costs and further declined to 50% with GHG emissions costs. The Best Policy Scenario without GHG emissions costs led to 96% renewables and the remaining 4% is supplied by coal and gas turbines, indicating pure market economics. The results indicate that a 100% renewable energy system is the least-cost, least-water intensive, least-GHG-emitting and most job-rich option for the South African energy system in the mid-term future. No new coal and nuclear power plants are installed in the least-cost pathway, and existing fossil fuel capacities are phased out based on their technical lifetime.

Job creation during the global energy transition towards 100% renewable power system by 2050

“…Wherein, the decarbonised scenario and the least cost scenario with 'expected costs' are estimated to create 331 thousand jobs and around 380-392 thousand jobs by 2050, respectively (Wright et al, 2017). The results of Oyewo et al (2019) indicate a comparable share during the transition ranging from 408 thousand jobs in 2035 to 278 thousand jobs by 2050. Nevertheless, both the results from Wright et al (2017), as well as Oyewo et al (2019) indicate a difference of 100 thousand jobs or more between the conservative Current Policy Scenario (CPS) and the more progressive Best Policy Scenario.…”

“…The results of Oyewo et al (2019) indicate a comparable share during the transition ranging from 408 thousand jobs in 2035 to 278 thousand jobs by 2050. Nevertheless, both the results from Wright et al (2017), as well as Oyewo et al (2019) indicate a difference of 100 thousand jobs or more between the conservative Current Policy Scenario (CPS) and the more progressive Best Policy Scenario.…”

“…Additionally, Greenpeace International (2015) estimate solar PV to contribute around 9.7 million jobs by 2030, while this research estimates total solar PV jobs at around 18.7 million by 2030, mainly due to higher installed solar PV capacity in this research resulting from a cost optimised energy mix. The methods of this research were adopted for the case of South Africa, which is further highlighted in Oyewo et al (2019) and the results were compared with Wright et al (2017) that adopt a different model for job estimation. Wherein, the decarbonised scenario and the least cost scenario with 'expected costs' are estimated to create 331 thousand jobs and around 380-392 thousand jobs by 2050, respectively (Wright et al, 2017).…”

Nothing to regret: Reconciling renewable energies with human wellbeing and nature in the German Energy Transition

“…The LUT model was used for several national case studies that calculate, for example, the potential future developments in the energy system of Kazakhstan, 10 Turkey 14 and South Africa. 15 Othernational studies have calculated the energy potential using rather coarse input data 16,17 and considering only nature within protected areas. Furthermore, all studies assume presentday conditions and do not consider future developments in electricity demand, expected for technological innovations or land availability in the next 30 years.…”

“…Although these modeling approaches provide good overviews, they cannot replace necessary national analyses that are required to achieve the national obligations under the Paris agreement. The LUT model was used for several national case studies that calculate, for example, the potential future developments in the energy system of Kazakhstan, 10 Turkey 14 and South Africa 15 . Othernational studies have calculated the energy potential using rather coarse input data 16,17 and considering only nature within protected areas.…”