Pathogens, Weather Shocks and Civil Conflicts

Cervellati, Matteo; Sunde, Uwe; Valmori, Simona

doi:10.1111/ecoj.12430

Cited by 38 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…Robustness to Accounting for Alternative Correlates of Conflict Incidence Table A.16 conducts a robustness check on the results from the baseline analysis of the reduced-form impact of contemporary population diversity on the quinquennial incidence of civil conflict in repeated cross-country data, as shown in Panel A of Table 4. Specifically, we additionally control for the potentially confounding influence of alternative distributional indices of intergroup diversity (e.g., Fearon, 2003;Esteban, Mayoral and Ray, 2012) and additional geographical correlates of conflict (e.g., Fearon and Laitin, 2003;Cervellati, Sunde and Valmori, 2017). The specifications examined in this table are identical to the fully specified baseline models reported in Panel A of Table 4, with the exception that in Columns 1-3 and 6-8 of the current analysis, each of the reported control variables is employed in lieu of the baseline control for ethnic fractionalization , whereas in Columns 4 and 9, the set of reported control variables replaces the baseline controls for both ethnic fractionalization and ethnolinguistic polarization (Desmet, Ortuño-Ortín and Wacziarg, 2012), in the interest of mitigating multicollinearity.…”

Section: A2 Robustness Checks For the Analysis Of Civil Conflict Incmentioning

confidence: 99%

Diversity and Conflict

et al. 2018

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This research advances the hypothesis and establishes empirically that interpersonal population diversity has contributed significantly to the emergence, prevalence, recurrence, and severity of intrasocietal conflicts. Exploiting an exogenous source of variations in population diversity across nations and ethnic groups, it demonstrates that population diversity, as determined predominantly during the exodus of humans from Africa tens of thousands of years ago, has contributed significantly to the risk and intensity of historical and contemporary internal conflicts, accounting for the confounding effects of geographical, institutional, and cultural characteristics, as well as for the level of economic development. These findings arguably reflect the adverse effect of population diversity on interpersonal trust, its contribution to divergence in preferences for public goods and redistributive policies, and its impact on the degree of fractionalization and polarization across ethnic, linguistic, and religious groups.

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Section: A2 Robustness Checks For the Analysis Of Civil Conflict Incmentioning

confidence: 99%

Diversity and Conflict

et al. 2018

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“…The IV F-stat decreases to 12.6, and the coefficients (-1.07** and 0.05) are close to our OLS estimates. 36 34 Relatedly, Cervellati et al (2014) show that in the post-World War 2 period disease outbreaks are associated with an intensification of civil conflict. Arguably, the respective number of soldiers involved, and whether the cities were burned or sacked, may be a better proxy for the devastation associated with warfare.…”

Section: Spatial Fixed Effectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pandemics, Places, and Populations: Evidence from the Black Death

2019

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The Black Death killed 40% of Europe's population between 1347-1352, making it one of the largest shocks in the history of mankind. Despite its historical importance, little is known about its spatial effects and the effects of pandemics more generally. Using a novel dataset that provides information on spatial variation in Plague mortality at the city level, as well as various identification strategies, we explore the short-run and long-run impacts of the Black Death on city growth. On average, cities recovered their pre-Plague populations within two centuries. In addition, aggregate convergence masked heterogeneity in urban recovery. We show that both of these facts are consistent with a Malthusian model in which population returns to high-mortality locations endowed with more rural and urban fixed factors of production. Land suitability and natural and historical trade networks played a vital role in urban recovery. Our study highlights the role played by pandemics in determining both the sizes and placements of populations.

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“…There are externalities to conflict from better health as well. Indeed, worse health (proxied by high exposure to infectious diseases) has been found to increase the risk of conflict (Cervellati, Sunde, and Valmori 2014).…”

Section: Externalitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Empirical studies of conflict have indeed found that welfare expenditures are associated with a lower risk of conflict (Bodea, Higashijima, and Singh 2016); education reduces the risk of civil war (Barakat and Urdal 2009;Collier and Hoeffler 2004;Østby and Urdal 2010;Thyne 2006); and where people suffer from poor health, there is more scope for conflict (Cervellati, Sunde, and Valmori 2014). Human capital can reduce the scope for conflict and the level of political instability through three channels, which are discussed next (Rohner 2014).…”

Section: Human Capital As a Conflict Deterrentmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Economic Rationale for Investing in Human Capital

Brière¹,

Filmer²,

Ringold³

et al. 2017

From Mines and Wells to Well-Built Minds: Turning Sub-Saharan Africa's Natural Resource Wealth Into Human Capital

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There are compelling economic arguments for governments to invest in the human capital of their people-limited access to credit narrows household choices, information failures distort investments, and spillover effects lead to suboptimal family investments. Lack of access to capital is one reason for governments to invest little in human capital-a problem that natural resource revenues can help to overcome. Investing in human capital should be an important part of the portfolio of investments using resource revenues-along with investing in infrastructure and saving through mechanisms, such as sovereign wealth funds, that allow countries to earn international rates of return on investments. A balanced portfolio is desirable, and investing in human capital has a special role to play in resource-rich settings-especially in poor countries-where the need for human capital and infrastructure investments is large. The indirect effects of enhancing human capital on reducing the incidence and cost of conflict are also a large part of the story. Why Governments Should Invest in Human Capital "Perfect Markets" as a Reference Point When markets are functioning perfectly, households have a full range of choices about how to invest their disposable income. They can use their cash for consumption, savings, investing in education and training, and various other types of spending or investing. Since each type of spending has diminishing benefits, at least eventually, people would adjust their spending so that, as economists put it, the marginal returns are equalized across different types of spending. If markets were "perfect," an additional dollar spent on building human capital would yield the same return as the interest rate obtained through savings. If it were higher, households would increase their spending on skills acquisition (perhaps financed An Economic Rationale for Investing in Human Capital From Mines and Wells to Well-Built Minds •

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Pathogens, Weather Shocks and Civil Conflicts

Cited by 38 publications

References 59 publications

Diversity and Conflict

Diversity and Conflict

Pandemics, Places, and Populations: Evidence from the Black Death

An Economic Rationale for Investing in Human Capital

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