Pathogen Infection Recovery Probability (PIRP) Versus Proinflammatory Anti-Pathogen Species (PIAPS) Levels: Modelling and Therapeutic Strategies

Abstract

Current CoVID-19 pandemic is spreading rapidly worldwide, and it may become one of the largest pandemic events in modern history if out of control. It appears most of the SARS-CoV-2 virus infection resulted deaths are mainly due to dysfunctions or failures of the lung or multiple organs that could be attributed to host’s immunodysfunctions particularly hyperinflammatory type disorders. In this brief review and study, a mathematical model is proposed to correlate the Pathogen Infection Recovery Probability (PIRP) versus Proinflammatory Anti-Pathogen Species (PIAPS) levels, where a maximum PIRP is expected when the PIAPS levels are equal to or around PIAPS equilibrium levels at the pathogen elimination or clearance onset. Based on this model, rational or effective therapeutic strategies at right stages or timing, with right type of agents (immuno-stimulators or immuno-suppressors), and right dosages, could be designed and implemented that are expected to effectively achieve maximum PIRP or reduce the mortality.