Path dependence and critical junctures: three decades of interstate conflict in the African great lakes region

Abstract

As opposed to the three decades following independence, interstate wars have become frequent in the African great lakes region since 1990. This article analyses the unravelling of these wars, and looks at their causes and consequences. The conceptual framework to analyse the clear but convoluted line linking these conflicts is that of path dependence and critical junctures. Each stage is defined in these terms. The article shows that path dependence is the main explanatory factor, but that critical junctures have played out at crucial moments, including when the initial stage was set in Uganda. It concludes that a very longue durée path dependence can be found in Rwanda, where most threads of the conflicts converge. However, it also finds that extreme state weakness in Zaire/DR Congo has been and still is a major contributory factor to the cross-border violence. The article finally argues that the conceptual framework is not only useful as an analytical tool, but may also assist efforts in conflict prevention and management.

Civil Wars as Critical Junctures: Theoretical Grounding and Empirical Applications

“…This lack of crossover has also afflicted international security studies(Solingen and Wan 2016) Reyntjens (2020). is also exceptional in taking a critical junctures approach to examining the interaction of interstate and civil conflict in Africa.…”