Pastoral livelihood pathways transitions in northern Kenya: The process and impact of drought

Abstract

Recurrent droughts and long-term changes to climate, social structures, and the economy in the world’s arid and semi-arid lands have impacted pastoralists’ livelihood activities over time, resulting in different livelihood pathways. Some pastoralists continue to follow more traditional strategies of herd accumulation, while others frequently engage in livestock markets and value addition activities, and others still are dropping out of pastoralism. Using data collected over 6 years from 924 households in northern Kenya and applying a generalized structural dynamic multinomial logit model, this study quantitatively determined the dynamic transitions between livelihood categories conditional on drought incidences. From the results, there were considerable and frequent transitions between livelihood pathways within the panel period (2009–2015). Notably, many households that started in the low-cash income, larger herd size category denoted as hanging in, were transitioning to lower cash income with small herds (dropping out). At the same time, there was a great deal of back and forth between the category with low-cash income and small herd size (dropping out) and the category with higher cash income and small herd size (moving out), indicating that moving out was the only way out of poverty. Also, an increase in vegetation index from a drought season where the index was at a 10% level to a good season where the level was 90% decreased the likelihood of households dropping out from a predicted probability of 37.9 to 28.7% and increased the likelihood of moving up and moving out from 22.2 to 25.0% and 22.6 to 34.3%, respectively, unconditionally. The study findings imply that any livelihood interventions aimed at reducing the impact of drought and alleviating poverty among pastoral households should support the transition to market-oriented, relatively successful pathways and also protect households from falling back into the ranks of poverty by dropping out.

Use value of indigenous range grass species in pastoral northern Kenya

“…The potentials of pastoral systems towards realizing the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are immense, and will substantially contribute to economic development, poverty reduction while enhancing environmental and climate resilience (Zinsstag et al 2016). This points to the current and future importance natural pastures as primary source of livestock in pastoral systems, particularly in Kenya (Kirui et al 2022). Despite the understanding of the role of grass as livestock forage, their availability has been declining over the years due to various drivers including land degradation, land use changes and progressive sedentarization of pastoralists coupled with extreme weather events resulting from climate change, particularly droughts.…”

Facing old and new risks in arid environments: The case of pastoral communities in Northern Kenya

“…To increase water availability for irrigable farming and livestock, agro-pastoral dams and irrigation schemes have been built [78]. Other adaptations practiced in Marsabit, Turkana and Laikipia County include livestock migration or higher livestock mobility to find new pasture and water resources, forage production, engagement in livestock markets, and improved livestock breeds or more diverse herd composition [12,79,80]. Another longterm strategy applied by Turkana pastoralists is sending children to school to improve their education, with the plan that this long-term investment will eventually pay off in higher incomes [12].…”

Climate change impacts, adaptation options and opportunities for investment in agro-pastoral value chains in arid and semi-arid regions of Kenya

“…Because they have less resources to fall back on in the event of shocks, poor households in arid and semi-arid areas are more exposed and vulnerable (Kirui et al, 2022). The loss of natural resources and effects of climate change make pastoral communities less resilient, adding to long-standing risks such as insecurity and conflict, market volatility, food shortages, and weak governance (Kariuki et al, 2018).…”