Past variations and future projection of runoff in typical basins in 10 water zones, China

Guan, Xiaoxiang; Zhang, Jianyun; Bao, Zhenxin; Liu, Cuishan; Jin, Jian; Wang, Guoqing

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149277

Cited by 45 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 37 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The result is consistent with those of Guan et al. (2021) who used 9 GCMs from CMIP6 under three SSPs to explore the future runoff over 10 typical basins in China. They found that the runoff shows slightly downward trends in eight basins during 2020‐2039 (a period overlaps with that corresponding to 1.5 and 2.0°C warming levels for SSP245) under three scenarios and is projected to gradually increase in most basins after 2040.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 89%

Impacts of Global Climate Warming on Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts and Their Propagations

Troin

Shi

et al. 2022

Earth's Future

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Meteorological to hydrological drought propagation has been widely studied to reflect the relationship between these drought categories and better understand drought mechanisms. However, global warming may alter the drought propagation features, which are not fully understood. This study aims to investigate changes in meteorological and hydrological drought conditions, especially their propagation features in 1.5–3.0°C warmer climates for 8,655 watersheds globally. First, the three‐month scale standardized precipitation index and the standardized runoff index are calculated based on the precipitation simulated by the 15 global climate models and the runoff simulated by the four hydrological models, respectively. Drought events are then identified using the run theory, followed by the calculation of drought propagation features (i.e., pooling, lag, and lengthening) for matched meteorological and hydrological droughts. As a result, both meteorological and hydrological drought conditions (i.e., duration and severity) would relieve in warmer climates due to increased precipitation for regions excluding Western North America, South America, the Mediterranean, Southern Africa, East Asia, and Australia. However, the drought conditions would be more severe during drought propagation from meteorological to hydrological droughts over most regions. During drought propagation, the worsening drought conditions over half of the regions would be more serious first and then relieved with the rising temperature. These results indicate that efforts to slow down global warming can suppress the deterioration of drought conditions in the propagation.

show abstract

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 89%

Impacts of Global Climate Warming on Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts and Their Propagations

Troin

Shi

et al. 2022

Earth's Future

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…A new generation of these models has been developed in recent years, leading currently to the 6th phase of the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) (Eyring et al., 2016). A large body of runoff research has so far been conducted using CMIP6, looking at, for example, runoff variability (Guan et al., 2021), drought characteristics (based on the standardized runoff index) (T. Wang et al., 2021), river floods (Di Sante et al., 2021), and the response of global runoff to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (Le et al., 2021). However, these results are subject to considerable uncertainty (Lehner et al., 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projections of Global Land Runoff Changes and Their Uncertainty Characteristics During the 21st Century

Miao

Fan

2023

Earth's Future

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The magnitude of runoff has an impact on water resources, making it an essential factor to consider in climate change research. Global climate model (GCM) has developed rapidly in the past few decades. However, the projected changes in runoff among GCMs show significant disagreement, leading to substantial uncertainty. This discrepancy greatly affects the application of GCMs in future runoff projections. The objective of this study is to (a) examine the temporal and spatial characteristics of global land runoff changes under different future scenarios; (b) investigate the agreement among GCMs regarding runoff changes; and (c) decompose the uncertainties associated with projected runoff changes over the globe and individual continents. The findings of this study will enhance our understanding of GCM characteristics and provide decision-makers with more precise information to address future runoff changes.

show abstract

“…The water cycle and water resources are widely affected by climate change and human activities (Guan et al, 2021; IPCC, 2021; Sun et al, 2019). In this context, global river runoff has changed significantly during the last several decades (Shi et al, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Attribution analysis of the spatiotemporal variation in water balance in a typical semiarid basin in northern China

Wen

Tang

et al. 2022

Hydrological Processes

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Climate change and anthropogenic factors have significantly impacted hydrological regimes, especially in semiarid regions. Using the trend-free pre-whitening Mann-Kendall (TFPW-MK) test and linear regression, trends of precipitation, temperature, runoff, and water balances from different spatiotemporal scales were analysed during the past sixty years in the Upper Yongding River Basin (UYRB). Based on the Choudhury-Yang equation, the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff variation were further quantified in five mountainous catchments, and the actual effects of climate change and human activities on the water balance in the whole UYRB were also discussed. The results suggest that the UYRB has become much warmer and drier. The lower annual precipitation and intensity in summer were directly attributed to runoff reductions. Intra-annual scale analyses of meteorological, hydrological and biological responses helped the comprehensive interpretation of the runoff trends. Human activities, including agricultural irrigation, were the main causes for runoff reduction, especially in the middle and lower reaches, and the contribution of human activities increased gradually in recent decades. The water balance changed drastically temporally, with the precipitation being converted less to runoff and more to evaporated fractions, which was also due to the second order effects of climate change and vegetation improvement. It is suggested that low water-consumption plant species and the related water-saving techniques in agriculture and afforestation should be introduced for the sustainable development in the similar regions.

show abstract

Past variations and future projection of runoff in typical basins in 10 water zones, China

Cited by 45 publications

References 37 publications

Impacts of Global Climate Warming on Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts and Their Propagations

Impacts of Global Climate Warming on Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts and Their Propagations

Projections of Global Land Runoff Changes and Their Uncertainty Characteristics During the 21st Century

Attribution analysis of the spatiotemporal variation in water balance in a typical semiarid basin in northern China

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About