Past, present, and future nuisance flooding on the Charleston peninsula

Morris, James T.; Renken, Katherine

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0238770

Cited by 14 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Over the period of 1920 to the present, global SLR has increased approximately 18 cm (7 inches [1]), while "nuisance flooding" in Charleston has increased from rare (none to a few times a year in 1920) by at least an order of magnitude [53,54]. In 2019, for example, Charleston experienced 77 days of nuisance flood events [55].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Predictive Human Health Risk Assessment of Non-Choleraic Vibrio spp. during Hurricane-Driven Flooding Events in Coastal South Carolina, USA

2021

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Densely populated, low-lying coastal areas are most at-risk for negative impacts from increasing intensity of storm-induced flooding. Due to the effects of global warming and subsequent climate change, coastal temperatures and the magnitude of storm-induced flooding are projected to increase, creating a hospitable environment for the aquatic Vibrio spp. bacteria. A relative risk model analysis was used to determine which census block groups in coastal South Carolina have the highest risk of Vibrio spp. exposure using storm surge flooding as a proxy. Coastal block groups with dense vulnerable sub-populations exposed to storm surge have the highest relative risk, while inland block groups away from riverine-mediated storm surge have the lowest relative risk. As Vibriosis infections may be extremely severe or even deadly, the best methods of infection control will be regular standardized coastal and estuarine water monitoring for Vibrio spp. to enable more informed and timely public health advisories and help prevent future exposure.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Predictive Human Health Risk Assessment of Non-Choleraic Vibrio spp. during Hurricane-Driven Flooding Events in Coastal South Carolina, USA

2021

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“…The intermediate low scenario has a 73% and 96% probability of being exceeded in 2100 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively; while the intermediate scenario has a 3% and 17% probability of being exceeded by 2100 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively (Sweet et al, 2017). Starting sea-level rise rate was set as 3.4 mm y -1 , as calculated for the Charleston Harbor by Morris and Renken (2020). The elevation range of marsh vegetation was assumed to be within 25 cm below mean sea level (MSL), and 30 cm above mean high water (MHW), as characterized in South Carolina salt marshes (Morris et al, 2013).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Restoration and resilience to sea level rise of a salt marsh affected by dieback events in Charleston, SC

Rolando¹,

Hodges

Garcia³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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The frequency of salt marsh dieback events has been increasing in the last 25 years with unknown consequences to the resilience of the ecosystem to accelerated sea level rise (SLR). Sudden dieback events triggered by extreme climatic events were previously thought to recover naturally within a few months to years. We provide evidence that about 15% of total marsh area has not revegetated 10- and 20-years after dieback events in two case studies in the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico USA, respectively. In both case studies, dieback onset coincided with severe drought events. In West Ashley, SC, dieback areas were associated with lower elevation zones in the interior of the marsh. Restoration by grass planting was shown to be effective in the South Carolina urban marsh, indicating that the stressors that caused dieback may be overcome despite that most of dieback areas have not recovered naturally. A mechanistic modelling approach was used to predict the resilience of the South Carolina salt marsh to accelerated SLR under different scenarios of primary productivity, ecological management, and rates of SLR. Predictions indicate that a highly productive restored marsh (2000 g m-2 y-1) would persist at a moderate SLR rate of 60 cm 100 y-1, whereas a non-restored mudflat would rapidly lose all of its elevation capital. Further, at an elevated SLR rate of 122 cm 100 y-1, most likely an extreme climate change scenario, even highly productive ecosystems augmented by sediment placement would not keep pace with SLR. Thus, both climate change adaptation and mitigation actions are urgently needed to preserve highly valuable present-day marsh ecosystems close to urban environments.

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“…The intermediate low scenario has a 73% and 96% probability of being exceeded by 2100 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, while the intermediate scenario has a 3% and 17% probability of being exceeded by 2100 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively (Sweet et al, 2017). Starting SLR rate was set as 3.4 mm year −1 , as calculated for the Charleston Harbor by Morris and Renken (2020). The elevation range of marsh vegetation was assumed to be within 25 cm below mean sea level (MSL) and 30 cm above mean high water (MHW), as characterized in South Carolina salt marshes (Morris et al, 2013).…”

Section: Modeling Of Marsh Elevation Under Primary Production Managem...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Restoration and resilience to sea level rise of a salt marsh affected by dieback events

et al. 2023

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The frequency of salt marsh dieback events has increased over the last 25 years with unknown consequences to the resilience of the ecosystem to accelerated sea level rise (SLR). Salt marsh ecosystems impacted by sudden vegetation dieback events were previously thought to recover naturally within a few months to years. In this study, we used a 13-year collection of remotely sensed imagery to provide evidence that approximately 14% of total marsh area has not revegetated 10 years after a dieback event in Charleston, SC. Dieback onset coincided with a severe drought in 2012, as indicated by the Palmer drought stress index. A second dieback event occurred in 2016 after a historic flood influenced by Hurricane Joaquin in 2015. Unvegetated zones reached nearly 30% of the total marsh area in 2017. We used a light detection and ranging-derived digital elevation model to determine that most affected areas were associated with lower elevation zones in the interior of the marsh. Further, restoration by grass planting was effective, with pilot-scale restored plots having greater aboveground biomass than reference sites after two years of transplanting. A positive outcome indicated that the stressors that caused the dieback are no longer present. Despite that, many affected areas have not recovered naturally, even though they are located within the typical elevation range of healthy marshes. A mechanistic modeling approach was used to assess the effects of vegetation dieback on salt marsh resilience to SLR. Predictions indicate that a highly productive restored marsh (2000 g m −2 year −1 ) would persist at a moderate SLR rate of 60 cm in 100 years, whereas a nonrestored mudflat would lose all its elevation capital after 100 years. Thus, rapid restoration of marsh dieback is critical to avoid further degradation. Also, failure to incorporate the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events that trigger irreversible marsh diebacks underestimates salt marsh vulnerability to climate change. Finally, at an elevated SLR rate of 122 cm in 100 years, which is most likely an extreme climate change scenario, even highly productive ecosystems augmented by sediment placement would not keep pace with SLR. Thus,

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Past, present, and future nuisance flooding on the Charleston peninsula

Cited by 14 publications

References 21 publications

A Predictive Human Health Risk Assessment of Non-Choleraic Vibrio spp. during Hurricane-Driven Flooding Events in Coastal South Carolina, USA

A Predictive Human Health Risk Assessment of Non-Choleraic Vibrio spp. during Hurricane-Driven Flooding Events in Coastal South Carolina, USA

Restoration and resilience to sea level rise of a salt marsh affected by dieback events in Charleston, SC

Restoration and resilience to sea level rise of a salt marsh affected by dieback events

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