Past, Present and Future: A Role for Liquid Biofuels in Transitioning to Net Zero?

Abstract

Over the last decade, the uptake rate of first-generation biofuels (ethanol and biodiesel) has decelerated as low blend limits have increased only slowly and extreme volatility in oil prices has limited investment in biofuels production infrastructure. Concerns over the environmental impacts of large-scale biofuels production combined with tariff barriers have greatly restricted the global trade in biofuels. First-generation biofuels produced either by fermentation of sugars from maize or sugarcane (ethanol) or transesterification of triglycerides (biodiesel) presently contribute less than 4% of terrestrial transportation fuel demand and techno-economic modelling foresees this only slowly increasing by 2035. With internal combustion and diesel engines widely anticipated as being phased out in favour of electric power for motor vehicles, a muchreduced market demand for biofuels is likely if global demand for all liquid fuels declines by 2050. However, second-generation, thermochemically produced and biomass-derived fuels (renewable diesel, marine oils and sustainable aviation fuel) have much higher blend limits; combined with policies to decarbonise the aviation and marine industries, major new markets for these products in terrestrial, marine and aviation sectors may emerge in the second half of the 21st century.