Past and future polar amplification of climate change: climate model intercomparisons and ice-core constraints

Masson‐Delmotte, Valérie; Kageyama, Masa; Braconnot, Pascale; Charbit, S.; Krinner, Gerhard; Ritz, Catherine; Guilyardi, Éric; Jouzel, Jean; Abe‐Ouchi, Ayako; Crucifix, Michel; Gladstone, Rupert; Hewitt, Chris; Kitoh, Akio; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Marti, Olivier; Merkel, Ute; Motoi, Tatsuo; Ohgaito, Rumi; Otto-Bliesner, B.; Peltier, W. R.; Ross, I. G.; Valdes, Paul J.; Vettoretti, G.; Weber, S. L.; Wolk, F.; Yu, Yongqiang

doi:10.1007/s00382-005-0081-9

Cited by 276 publications

(196 citation statements)

References 65 publications

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“…The model result shows about 2.5 to 3 K SST change in the low latitude and about 5 K global change, which is in the range of uncertainty of climate reconstructions from different proxies and also comparable to the performance of other coupled AOGCMs in PMIP2 (Masson-Delmotte et al, 2005;Kageyama et al, 2006;OttoBliesner et al, 2009). As a reference simulation SPRINT-ARS also calculates global distributions and radiative forcings of aerosols in the pre-industrial era as a present climate condition (PRE).…”

Section: Model Descriptionsupporting

confidence: 81%

“…The annual mean surface air temperature is 3 to Correspondence to: T. Takemura (toshi@riam.kyushu-u.ac.jp) 6 K lower on the global mean at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), which is about twenty-one thousands years ago, than in the present climate (Jouzel et al, 1993;Kucera et al, 2005;Masson-Delmotte et al, 2005;Wu et al, 2007;Otto-Bliesner et al, 2009). It is regionally about 3 and 10 K lower over the tropics and southern Europe, respectively.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A simulation of the global distribution and radiative forcing of soil dust aerosols at the Last Glacial Maximum

et al. 2009

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Abstract.In this study an integrated simulation of the global distribution and the radiative forcing of soil dust aerosols at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is performed with an aerosol climate model, SPRINTARS. It is compared with another simulation for the present climate condition. The global total emission flux of soil dust aerosols at the LGM is simulated to be about 2.4 times as large as that in the present climate, and the simulated deposition flux is in general agreement with estimations from ice core and marine sediment samplings though it appears to be underestimated over the Antarctic. The calculated direct radiative forcings of soil dust aerosols at the LGM is close to zero at the tropopause and −0.4 W m −2 at the surface. These radiative forcings are about twice as large as those in the present climate. SPRINT-ARS also includes the microphysical parameterizations of the cloud-aerosol interaction both for liquid water and ice crystals, which affect the radiation budget. The positive radiative forcing from the indirect effect of soil dust aerosols is mainly caused by their properties to act as ice nuclei. This effect is simulated to be smaller (−0.9 W m −2 ) at the LGM than in the present. It is suggested that atmospheric dust might contribute to the cold climate during the glacial periods both through the direct and indirect effects, relative to the interglacial periods.

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Section: Model Descriptionsupporting

confidence: 81%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A simulation of the global distribution and radiative forcing of soil dust aerosols at the Last Glacial Maximum

et al. 2009

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“…Pattern scaling is equally obvious in the dependency of surface air temperature change as a function of latitude (Fig. 8b), with a clear and coherent signature of polar amplification for all RCPs, again coherent with the CMIP3 models (Masson-Delmotte et al, 2006). As a consequence of the strong snowfall reduction at the more southerly latitudes, the relative reduction of the maximum snow mass is strongest at these latitudes, while the changes are weak further north in spite of stronger warming (Fig.…”

Section: Projected Changes As a Function Of Latitude And Emission Scesupporting

confidence: 65%

An analysis of present and future seasonal Northern Hemisphere land snow cover simulated by CMIP5 coupled climate models

2013

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Abstract. The 20th century seasonal Northern Hemisphere (NH) land snow cover as simulated by available CMIP5 model output is compared to observations. On average, the models reproduce the observed snow cover extent very well, but the significant trend towards a reduced spring snow cover extent over the 1979-2005 period is underestimated (observed: (−3.4 ± 1.1) % per decade; simulated: (−1.0 ± 0.3) % per decade). We show that this is linked to the simulated Northern Hemisphere extratropical spring land warming trend over the same period, which is also underestimated, although the models, on average, correctly capture the observed global warming trend. There is a good linear correlation between the extent of hemispheric seasonal spring snow cover and boreal large-scale spring surface air temperature in the models, supported by available observations. This relationship also persists in the future and is independent of the particular anthropogenic climate forcing scenario. Similarly, the simulated linear relationship between the hemispheric seasonal spring snow cover extent and global mean annual mean surface air temperature is stable in time. However, the slope of this relationship is underestimated at present (observed: (−11.8 ± 2.7) % • C −1 ; simulated: (−5.1 ± 3.0) % • C −1 ) because the trend towards lower snow cover extent is underestimated, while the recent global warming trend is correctly represented.

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“…Amplified warming in the Arctic has been predicted in several generations of climate models (Manabe and Stouffer 1980;Hansen et al 1984;Washington and Meehl 1996;Holland and Bitz 2003;Murray and Walsh 2005;Masson-Delmotte et al 2005). The amplification is a consequence of a combination of several factors, with retreating sea ice cover playing a central role (Chapman and Walsh 2007;Serreze et al 2009;Screen and Simmonds 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Atmospheric impacts of sea ice decline in CO2 induced global warming

Cvijanović

Caldeira

2015

Clim Dyn

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Past and future polar amplification of climate change: climate model intercomparisons and ice-core constraints

Abstract: An erratum to this article can be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0149-

Cited by 276 publications

References 65 publications

A simulation of the global distribution and radiative forcing of soil dust aerosols at the Last Glacial Maximum

A simulation of the global distribution and radiative forcing of soil dust aerosols at the Last Glacial Maximum

An analysis of present and future seasonal Northern Hemisphere land snow cover simulated by CMIP5 coupled climate models

Atmospheric impacts of sea ice decline in CO2 induced global warming

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