Participatory Mathematical Modeling Approach for Policymaking during the First Year of the COVID-19 Crisis, Jordan

Abstract

We engaged in a participatory modeling approach with health sector stakeholders in Jordan to support government decision-making regarding implementing public health measures to mitigate COVID-19 disease burden. We considered the effect of 4 physical distancing strategies on reducing COVID-19 transmission and mortality in Jordan during March 2020–January 2021: no physical distancing; intermittent physical distancing where all but essential services are closed once a week; intermittent physical distancing where all but essential services are closed twice a week; and a permanent physical distancing intervention. Modeling showed that the fourth strategy would be most effective in reducing cases and deaths; however, this approach was only marginally beneficial to reducing COVID-19 disease compared with an intermittently enforced physical distancing intervention. Scenario-based model influenced policy-making and the evolution of the pandemic in Jordan confirmed the forecasting provided by the modeling exercise and helped confirm the effectiveness of the policy adopted by the government of Jordan.

Risk as catalyst for positive change: lessons learnt from public health readiness for cholera in Jordan

“…Health crises can serve as catalyst for positive change as exemplified during the COVID-19 pandemic in Jordan and globally. [28][29][30][31] Laboratory Jordan has a strong laboratory network which was showcased during the COVID-19 pandemic where the maximum capacity to perform molecular COVID-19 tests was estimated to reach 574 441 per week. 32 Yet, the country's last experience with cholera dates back to 1981.…”

The Importance of Public Health Emergency Management in Countries: The Role of WHO

“…The World Health Organization (WHO), as the principal health agency within the United Nations (UN), spearheaded the UN response globally through the Crisis Management Team and locally through the UN Country Teams (UNCTs) in alignment with its mandate. This is exemplified in different case studies, including Jordan Bellizzi at al., 2023a;Bellizzi et al, 2023b). Insights gained from internal and external reports, highlighted that WHO's actions involved providing technical expertise to ensure an effective whole-ofsociety response while minimizing social disruption.…”