Paris Agreement, Precautionary Principle and Human Rights: Zero Emissions in Two Decades?

Abstract

The Paris Agreement of December 2015 is subject to much criticism of being inadequate. This however neglects its very ambitious objective, which limits legally-binding global warming to 1.5 to 1.8 degrees in comparison to pre-industrial levels. This article shows, based on the overlap of unanswered questions for prognoses in natural science and the legal precautionary principle, that this objective indicates a legal imperative towards zero emissions globally within a short timeframe. Furthermore, it becomes apparent that policies need to be focused on achieving the 1.5-degree temperature limit. From a legal standpoint with regard to existential matters, only those policies are justified that are fit to contribute to reaching the temperature limit with high certainty, without overshoot, without leaving the 1.5 limit aside and without geoengineering measures, in contrast to the tendencies of the IPCC. This creates a big challenge even for the alleged forerunners of climate policies, Germany and the EU; because, according to the objective, the EU and Germany have to raise the level of ambition in their climate policies rapidly and drastically.

Land Use, Livestock, Quantity Governance, and Economic Instruments—Sustainability Beyond Big Livestock Herds and Fossil Fuels

“…In this paper, the above-mentioned Article 2 paragraph 1 of the Paris Agreement serves as the objective. This norm obliges all states worldwide to limit global warming to 1.5 • C compared to pre-industrial levels, which implies global zero emissions from fossil fuels in all sectors and drastically reduced emissions in other sectors such as animal husbandry-as well as a compensation of the remaining emissions-in a maximum of two decades (described in detail, also with regard to the ratio of Articles 2 and 4 Paris Agreement [14,15]). However, the comparison of emissions trading and livestock-to-land ratio as governance instruments cannot be based on a direct empirical experience, since instruments for zero emissions in two decades have so far not been observable, but are only theoretically constructed.…”

“…Assuming, however, that zero emissions in a maximum of two decades are required to ensure compliance with the 1.5-degree limit of Art. 2 paragraph 1 of the Paris Climate Agreement [14,15] greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from livestock farming require an absolute cap. This paper therefore focuses on the discussion of innovative governance options that are strictly oriented towards the binding environmental goals under international law which allow for a quantity control of emissions.…”

Peatland Governance: The Problem of Depicting in Sustainability Governance, Regulatory Law, and Economic Instruments

“…The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), therefore, estimates the mitigation potential through restoration and reduced conversion of peatlands at 0.3 to 3 GtCO 2 eq/yr, which is a medium effect among instruments proposed by the IPCC. Thus, regardless of their immediate mitigation potential, peatlands play a large role in long-term climate preservation, as--unlike vegetation--they are able to store GHG emissions for centuries [58] (p. 18,24). The conservation of wetlands and peatlands is very effective to store C, while their impact on other factors such as water resources and food security may vary regionally [58].…”

“…3 and 4 para. 1 PA. Based on the data of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), this requires global decarbonization of all sectors in a very short time, probably in only one to two decades (or with a 50:50 probability in three decades; see in detail [18,19]). Thus, not only emissions from degraded peat soils have to be avoided, but major sinks have to be created in order to achieve zero emissions ( [9,20] still related to the 2-degree-Celsius target; [21][22][23]).…”

Untitled

“…Ello porque en el "enfoque híbrido del AP, las NDC son el elemento bottom-up que complementa el elemento top-down del mecanismo de revisión, y por ello la claridad sobre la información previa a aportar por las Partes es necesaria no solo para comprender la ambición pero también para medir el progreso y exigir la rendición de cuentas de los Estados"(Kohli, 2015, p. 67) A continuación exponemos brevemente las aproximaciones a la ambición desde los análisis técnicocientíficos, para concluir la importancia de cuestiones éticas de fondo.En los últimos años ha existido un interés creciente por llevar a cabo análisis de las (I)NDC de las Partes. Ya en 2017, las NDC presentadas cubrían un 99% de las emisiones globales (Rajamani y Brunnée, 2017), sin embargo, los análisis de factibilidad ponen en duda que las contribuciones nacionales nos lleven a cumplir el objetivo del AP respecto de los 2ºC y 1.5ºC(IPCC, 2018;Pauw et al, 2019;Ekardt et al, 2018; King y van den Bergh, 2019). Varias herramientas digitales han intentado monitorear los progresos 17 .…”