Paridade descoberta de juros e controles de capital sob o Sistema Monetário-Financeiro Internacional contemporâneo

Abstract

The occurrence of successive financial and currency crises in emerging economies over the 1990s and the deflagration of the international financial crisis in 2008 have propelled academics and multilateral institutions to reassess the supposed benefits of the free mobility of capital facing the collateral effects derived from the current order of financial globalization. One of the most important unfolding of such long process consists in the emergence, under the mainstream economics, of an empirical and theoretical literature whose main object consists in the attempt to identify, under several parameters, the proper regulation that should be imposed on foreign capital flows. Although such reorientation in the mainstream economics is certainly welcome, in view of its influence on the political economy of financial globalization, this PhD dissertation arguments that such new approach on the use of capital controls still remains incomplete in view of the asymmetries that are inherent to the current International Monetary and Financial System (IMFS). The existence of such gap in the mainstream literature is possibly associated with both the dominant methodology of recent new-keynesian modelswhich are mostly characterized by the approach of representative agents -, and a relative conservatism present in regulation prescriptions defended by some mainstream exponentsfrom which the official papers published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) stand out -, in view of, for example, the reluctance to admit capital controls that are imposed on permanent basis. Therefore, the main contribution of this PhD dissertation consists in the development of a theoretical apparatus that ground the use of capital controls by emerging economies, which might be considered complementary to the ongoing mainstream approach. In order to achieve such goal, the main argumentation was developed from a critical rereading of the uncovered interest parity theorem in view of the hierarchical structure that characterizes the current IMFS, focusing on the international inconvertibility of peripheral currencies, and the structural dependence for current account financing that characterizes most of these economies. Therefore, this dissertation sustains that controls on capital inflows should be used within an external position characterized by, at least, structural equilibrium in current account in order to soften the collateral effects derived from the international inconvertibility of such currencies. Lastly, it is possible to state that the theoretical construct here proposedhence a keynesian/structuralist approachis empirically supported by emerging economies that meet the criteria previously established at the development of the thesis' hypothesis.