Panel Analysis of Home Prices in the Primary and Secondary Market in 17 Largest Cities in Poland

Average prices of residential real estate usually show significant variation on a regional basis. This reflects different social, economic or historical conditions for the development of these markets. In addition, research so far has not provided strong evidence supporting convergence in the level of property prices in the regional dimension. The lack of price convergence, however, does not exclude convergence in the direction and strength of price changes. The article is an attempt to answer the question of whether price trajectories in the regional housing markets in Poland show long-term similarity. To this end, econometric analysis of the dynamics of relative prices in the voivodship markets with the use of quarterly data from the years 2002-2016 has been conducted.

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Price Convergence in the Regional Housing Markets in Poland

Żelazowski¹

2019

“…analytically shifted by one or more periods) prices on the secondary market affect prices on the primary market, but this does not work the other way round. This means that price signals spread unidirectionally from the secondary market to the primary market in such a way that, because of excessive demand on the secondary market, the demand for flats can only be met by newly built flats from the primary market, which in turn makes their prices go up (Leszczyński & Olszewski, 2016). However, when delving into the study results in more detail, conclusions of this kind should be made with caution.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Identification of Regularities in Relation Between Prices on Primary and Secondary Housing Market in Selected Cities in Poland

Kokot

2022

The purpose of this study is to identify regularities in the price relations between primary and secondary housing markets. The primary market and the secondary market are two related but quite differentiated sub-segments of the residential market. They particularly differ in the qualitative features of their traded objects and, consequently, also in the prices recorded in their trading. Nevertheless, they remain under the influence of the same main factors of a macroeconomic nature. This gives rise to the research hypothesis that prices of flats quoted in the sub-segments of the residential market remain in specific relationships with one another. In an attempt to verify this hypothesis, the paper presents the results of an analytical work on the search for regularities in the relationship between prices on primary and secondary housing markets in selected Polish cities. The regularities concern the dynamics and structure of price relation indices constructed for the research. They also include classification analyses. The findings of the research have revealed, inter alia, that in the majority of the cities under study, prices of flats in the primary markets are higher than prices in the secondary markets. However, situations in which the reverse happens periodically (sometimes occasionally) are not rare. The examined relations are not permanent and are subject to relatively large, irregular fluctuations over time. It is possible to distinguish groups of cities which are relatively similar in this respect, but these similarities are not strong.

Integration and Cointegration of Apartment Prices on the Primary and Secondary Market in Szczecin in the Years 2006-2022

Doszyń

2023

The objective of the paper is to verify hypotheses regarding integration and cointegration (relation) of mean apartment prices on the primary and secondary market in Szczecin. Both transaction prices as well as offer prices of apartments were investigated. The analysis period encompasses the years of 2006 – 2022 (quarterly data). An ADF test was employed to examine the integration of time series, taking into consideration a deterministic component in the form of a quadratic function. Only the time series of mean offer prices and transaction prices on the primary market proved to be integrated in the first degree. The time series of mean offer prices and transaction prices on the secondary market were not integrated, they occurred to be trend stationary series. A two-step Engle-Granger test was employed to analyze the cointegration of time series, which confirmed the cointegration of mean offer prices and transaction prices on the primary market. The relations between individual price types were examined with the use of a procedure which entailed analyzing (with an ADF test) difference stationarity between prices. From the empirical studies it arises that, in Szczecin, transaction and offer prices on the primary market follow one another. On the secondary market, offer and transaction prices are trend stationary and they converge. On the other hand, prices on the primary market diverge from prices on the secondary market (the primary market diverges from the secondary market). This concerns both offer prices as well as transaction prices.