Pandemic risk management using engineering safety principles

Abstract

The containment of infectious diseases is challenging due to complex transmutation in the biological system, intricate global interactions, intense mobility, and multiple transmission modes. An emergent disease has the potential to turn into a pandemic impacting millions of people with loss of life, mental health, and severe economic impairment. Multifarious approaches to risk management have been explored for combating an epidemic spread. This work presents the implementation of engineering safety principles to pandemic risk management. We have assessed the pandemic risk using Paté-Cornell's six levels of uncertainty. The susceptible, exposed, infected, quarantined, recovered, deceased (SEIQRD), an advanced mechanistic model, along with the Monte Carlo simulation, has been used to estimate the fatality risk. The risk minimization strategies have been categorized into hierarchical safety measures. We have developed an event tree model of pandemic risk management for distinct risk-reducing strategies realized due to natural evolution, government interventions, societal responses, and individual practices. The roles of distinct interventions have also been investigated for an infected individual's survivability with the existing healthcare facilities. We have studied the Corona Virus Disease of 2019 (COVID-19) for pandemic risk management using the proposed framework. The results highlight effectiveness of the proposed strategies in containing a pandemic.

Assessment of public intention to get vaccination against COVID‐19: Evidence from a developing country

“… 13 However, its supply is inadequate in developing countries. 14 Previous studies were mainly centred on scrutinizing the environmental impacts of COVID‐19. Among them, the first group of researchers focused on the epidemiology of COVID‐19 15 , 16 and the interaction of environmental and climatic factors with COVID‐19.…”

COVID-19, Economic Impact, Mental Health, and Coping Behaviors: A Conceptual Framework and Future Research Directions

“…Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as increasing handwashing, reducing physical contact, wearing masks in public places, maintaining social distance, quarantine, and isolation, are still the main strategies for handling this pandemic ( Van Bavel et al, 2020 ; Gössling et al, 2021 ). The social and economic consequences of the pandemic are devastating: almost half of the global workforce is at risk of losing their livelihoods, tens of millions are at risk of falling into extreme poverty, and millions of companies are facing existential threat ( Alauddin et al, 2021 ). In addition to the pandemic itself, the economic impact of the crisis brings heavy psychological stress to individuals, causing mental health problems, and may trigger long-lasting behavior changes.…”

Biological Disasters: An Overview of the Covid-19 Pandemic in the First Quarter of 2021

“…It provides the fastest way to minimize the impact of the pandemic, provided the vaccine is available and accessible to all. The nature and implementation of the risk reduction strategy from preventive risks during the pandemic can only be revealed with engineering applications (Alauddin et al, 2021). It can be achieved through the use of herd protection, genetics or diet to strengthen the immune system and raise management awareness of person tracing, rapid test status and safe handling procedures, in line with administrative advice that should be implemented at the individual and community level.…”

“…They cause significant economic losses. When looking at mitigation measures, stage and risk reduction activities are possible by applying by management and administrative services as a type of procedural risk reduction strategies to quarantine and treat cases exposed during the pandemic, improve health systems, expand hospitals, workers, antidotes (Alauddin et al, 2021). Although the pandemic is not over yet, all these risk management strategies have emerged as of March 11, 2020 and have been procedurally published by the countries' own policies (Komurcu et al, 2021).…”