Pandemic Lockdown: The Role of Government Commitment

Moser, Christian; Yared, Pierre

doi:10.3386/w27062

Cited by 21 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Our study contributes to the literature in this regard by showing that the policy responses have been effective in moderating COVID-19's impact on productivity. Our analyses also contribute to the literature on the optimal policies in times of crises (see Assenza et al, 2020;Kahn and Wagner, 2021;Mitman and Rabinovich, 2020;Moser and Yared, 2020). It shows that an optimal policy mix (fiscal, monetary, and other policies) is necessary to overcome a crisis.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 57%

Covid-19, Policy Responses, and Industrial Productivity Around the Globe

Iyke¹,

Sharma²,

Gunadi³

2021

BEMP

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We examine whether the COVID-19-induced policy responses by countries moderated the negative impact of the pandemic on industrial productivity. Using a panel of the 50 most affected countries by the pandemic, we show that the policy responses do not only help reduce the spread of COVID-19, but they also moderate its negative impact on industrial productivity and help steer countries back to their growth paths. We demonstrate that, in the absence of the pandemic, some of the policy responses (i.e., lockdowns, travel restrictions, etc.) would have reduced productivity. We further demonstrate that our estimates are robust when considering alternative specifications of our productivity model. Our study provides strong support for evidence-based policies and emphasizes, consistent with theoretical arguments, that an optimal policymix is fundamental to steering economies back to their steady productivity growth paths when facing negative shocks.

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 57%

Covid-19, Policy Responses, and Industrial Productivity Around the Globe

Iyke¹,

Sharma²,

Gunadi³

2021

BEMP

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“…There are some theoretical attempts to study the behavioural aspect of consumers towards the virus. Moser and Yared (2020) [7] study the optimal lockdown policy and argue that governments are faced with the choice to limit the extent of future lockdown in order to support more optimistic investor expectations and credibility. Others, such as Alvarez, Argente and Lippi (2020) [8] study the optimal lockdown policy with the SIR epidemiology model and a linear economy to formalize the planner's dynamic control problem.…”

Section: Effects On the Longer-runmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This shows that the method is built in a robust way and generalizes well over time, as the samples are 5 years apart and no modifications to the method have been made prior to testing. 7 This methodology predicts the correct province with 95% accuracy, the correct municipality with 86% accuracy and the correct city with 67% accuracy.…”

Section: Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tracking the Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic with the Use of High-Frequency Geo-Located Bank Transaction Data

Neuteboom¹,

Kapetanios²,

Ventouri³

et al. 2022

Proceedings of the Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences

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Using geo-located transaction data from 2 million customers of ABN AMRO bank in the Netherlands, this paper distinguishes the economic effects of consumers responses to the Covid-19 pandemic from those attributable to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). We compare municipalities that experienced large Covid-19 outbreaks with municipalities that had few or no cases and find that during the first Covid-19 wave the scale of the outbreak in a municipality has a strong negative effect on physical transactions by consumers in that municipality. This behavioral response function of consumers towards the virus is however not constant over time. During the second Covid-19 wave, the behavioural effect of consumers towards the virus has no real impact on consumption.

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“…Understanding disease dynamics has assumed vital importance in the midst of the on- going SARS-CoV2 pandemic. Decision-makers around the world are grappling with the difficult task of weighing the need for lockdown interventions to mitigate disease spread against the negative socioeconomic impact of prolonged disruptions to trade, business and social interactions [Moser and Yared, 2020]. Nowhere else is this issue more critically important than in lower income countries (LICs) and lower middle income countries (LMICs), where policy-makers have to decide between imposing strict lockdowns, which inevitably lead to massive financial difficulties for economically weaker sections of the society[Singh and Neog, 2020], or allow the disease to run unchecked and cause a high number of casualties[Lancet, 2020].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal lockdown strategies for SARS-CoV2 mitigation— an Indian perspective

Pathak

Mohan

Banerjee

2020

Preprint

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We sought to identify optimal temporal windows for lockdown-based mitigation strategies on infectious disease spreads. An age-structured multi-compartmental Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model was used to estimate infection spreads under parametric variation of lockdown intensity and duration from the data of SARS-CoV2 cases in India between January to July, 2020. The resulting parameter values were used to simulate lockdown outcomes for a wide range of start times and durations. Lockdowns were simulated as intervention strategies that modified weights assigned to social contact matrices for work, school and other places. Lockdown efficacy was assessed by the maximum number of infections recorded during a simulation run. Our analysis shows that lockdown outcomes depend sensitively on the timing of imposition and that it is possible to minimize lockdown durations while limiting case loads to numbers below the hospitalization thresholds. Such timing based effects arise naturally from the non-linear nature of SIR dynamics.

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Pandemic Lockdown: The Role of Government Commitment

Cited by 21 publications

References 24 publications

Covid-19, Policy Responses, and Industrial Productivity Around the Globe

Covid-19, Policy Responses, and Industrial Productivity Around the Globe

Tracking the Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic with the Use of High-Frequency Geo-Located Bank Transaction Data

Optimal lockdown strategies for SARS-CoV2 mitigation— an Indian perspective

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