Pandemic fatigue impact on COVID-19 spread: A mathematical modelling answer to the Italian scenario

Abstract

The COVID-19 outbreak has generated, in addition to the dramatic sanitary consequences, severe psychological repercussions for the populations affected by the pandemic. Simultaneously, these consequences can have related effects on the spread of the virus. Pandemic fatigue occurs when stress rises beyond a threshold, leading a person to feel demotivated to follow recommended behaviours to protect themselves and others. In the present paper, we introduce a new susceptible-infected-quarantined-recovered-dead (SIQRD) model in terms of a system of ordinary differential equations (ODE). The model considers the countermeasures taken by sanitary authorities and the effect of pandemic fatigue. The latter can be mitigated by fear of the disease’s consequences modelled with the death rate in mind. The mathematical well-posedness of the model is proved. We show the numerical results to be consistent with the transmission dynamics data characterising the epidemic of the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy in 2020. We provide a measure of the possible pandemic fatigue impact. The model can be used to evaluate the public health interventions and prevent with specific actions the possible damages resulting from the social phenomenon of relaxation concerning the observance of the preventive rules imposed.

Prevalence and factors associated with not receiving the booster dose of the COVID-19 vaccine in adults in Latin America and the Caribbean

“…In the case of people with depression, it is described that they are more likely to endorse false statements about COVID-19 and have half the likely to be vaccinated compared with those without depression, being proposed that a lack of positive interpretation bias or optimistic beliefs could conditionate those results mentioned above [ 33 ]. Additionally, there has been physical and mental exhaustion due to the restrictions related to the pandemic called “pandemic fatigue”, which causes people to decrease adherence to measures to prevent infection compared to the start of the pandemic [ 34 , 35 ].…”

COVID-19 pandemic fatigue and its sociodemographic and psycho-behavioral correlates: a population-based cross-sectional study in Hong Kong

“…Pandemic fatigue was variously described in the literature as: (1) a subjective feeling associated with depression, anxiety, lower resilience, poorer sleep quality, and poorer mental health among healthcare workers and patients amid the prolonged pandemic [6][7][8][9][10][11] , (2) lower adherence to certain COVID-19 protective behaviors over time in the general population 9,[11][12][13][14][15][16] , or (3) an explanatory construct for the underlying phenomena 17,18 . A concept closely related to pandemic fatigue is that of "pandemic burnout", a state of feeling emotionally and physically drained from prolonged anti-pandemic measures 19 .…”

Factors Associated with Not Receiving a Booster Dose of COVID-19 Vaccine in Peru

“…It is possible that the perception that a booster dose is not necessary after having previously had the infection is one of the reasons, as shown in previous studies [ 38 ]. Likewise, it is likely that the time elapsed since the beginning of the pandemic has exhausted the interest in maintaining biosafety measures, a phenomenon known as “pandemic fatigue”, leading people to reduce their adherence to community mitigation measures [ 39 , 40 ], including the receipt of booster doses.…”