Pandemic episodes, CO2 emissions and global temperatures

Abstract

This paper deals with the relationship between the CO 2 emissions and the global temperatures across the various pandemic episodes that have been taken place in the last 100 years. To carry out the analysis, first we conducted unit root tests finding evidence of nonstationary I(1) behavior, which means that a shift in time causes a change in the shape of distribution. However, due to the low statistical power of unit root tests, we also used a methodology based on long memory and fractional integration. Our results indicate that the emissions display very heterogeneous behavior in relation to the degree of persistence across pandemics. The temperatures are more homogeneous, finding values for the orders of integration of the series smaller than 1 in all cases, thus showing mean reverting behavior.

Global Temperature and Carbon Dioxide Nexus: Evidence from a Maximum Entropy Approach

“…Cost reductions and global adoptions of low-emissions technologies are mainly attributed to innovation policies pursued [27]. Nationally determined contributions announced before COP26 indicated that it was likely that warming will exceed 1.5 • C during the 21st century, and recent contributions in the literature also discuss and put these problems at the forefront [2,3,7,8,24,28,29]. In [2] it was concluded that the number of deaths increased significantly with the repetition of extreme weather events.…”

“…In [2] it was concluded that the number of deaths increased significantly with the repetition of extreme weather events. Using a methodology based on long memory and fractional integration, [28] concluded that emissions present heterogeneous behavior in terms of persistence in pandemics, even if temperatures are more homogeneous, evidencing mean reverting behaviors. In 2020, [3], also using fractional integration and cointegration methodologies, concluded that CO 2 emissions and temperatures are not cointegrated.…”