Pandemic and the Dynamics of SEIR Model: Case COVID-19

Abstract

Rapidly spreading disease, COVID-19 is classified as the human-to-human transmission-able disease and currently is a pandemic in the Globe. In this paper, we propose conceptual mathematical models for COVID-19 outbreak and it's control measurement; quarantine, hospitalization and the effect of panic and anxiety. In this situation, mathematical models are a important tool to employ an effective strategy in order to fight against this pandemic. We establish the positivity and boundedness of solutions, local and global stability analysis of equilibria to examine its epidemiological relevance. To validate the model and estimating the important model parameters and prediction about the disease, we consider the real cases of Italy from $15^{th}$ Feb to $13^{th} $ April 2020. In a series of graphical map, we have presented the comparative study to estimate the current scenarios and to predict the control measurement time boundary of the outbreak.

Mathematical Model to Estimate and Predict the COVID-19 Infections in Morocco: Optimal Control Strategy

“…In the literature, over the past three months, several works of mathematical modeling have been published taking into account the exposed and asymptomatic classes [15][16][17][18][19]. This motivated us to consider more general classes in order to study the efficiency of the national closure and to evaluate our strategy of control that will be applied to all people regardless if they are exposed or not.…”

Stability analysis of an epidemic model with vaccination and time delay

“…Example To begin with, let us consider a recent pandemic, namely, COVID‐19. The parameters are estimated in [21, 22] for the world. In this case, one has $$$ \alpha =0.3110,\beta =0.1818,\gamma =0.009,d=0.005 $$$, and $$$ \theta =0.0097 $$$.…”

Study of SEIR epidemic model and scenario analysis of COVID-19 pandemic

“…In this section, we implement meticulous numerical validation of the results obtained analytically. We have used mathematical software MATLAB (2018a) to numerically approximate the solution of our model system (i) [ 14 , 16 ].…”

“…In this situation, several studies have been conducted using real time data of the affected countries and distinct characteristics of the outbreak [ 14 , 15 ] have been examined. Kamrujjaman, Ghosh and Islam [ 16 ] developed the Susceptible Exposed Infectious Recovered model (SEIR) to clarify the dynamics of COVID-19 case. The SEIR model divides the population into four parts, namely the susceptible S(t), the exposed E(t), the infected I(t) and the recovered R(t) at time t. Several researchers have worked on mathematical modeling of the novel coronavirus.…”