Panarchy, ontological and epistemological phenomena, and the Plague

Abstract

Building resilience to major economic, social, and ecological crises such as armed conflict and natural disasters is seen as critical to maintaining system integrity. Although studies of system survival can be used to gauge whether or not social systems are resilient, this can only be conducted in retrospect. Contemporary measures of resilience rely on proxy measures that one can argue build capacity for resilience, but are not direct proxies for resilience itself, except in highly subscribed conditions. This leads us to our key research questions: Can the resilience of a system be measured contemporaneously by those within a social system? What can we learn from past efforts to understand the resilience of social systems by those living through their transformations? To answer these we examine Europe in the second half of the 14th century, during the outbreak and spread of the Plague through the continent. Through an examination of academic research relying on contemporary accounts during this period, we examine the indicators Europeans used at the time to understand changes in their social-ecological systems. We find a time lag between quantitative indicators of system resilience and the systemic shocks introduced by the Plague. However, narratives from the time suggest that those who experienced the epidemic were trying to develop personal understandings of the social changes around them and collective understandings of how to respond to these crises, both in advance of collecting easily comparable data that could be used for broader administrative purposes. The progression from individual narratives, to common understandings, and finally to comparable data is likely a common process that occurs as those within a social-ecological system make sense of a shift of the system from one arrangement to another.

How a Deadly Pandemic Cleared the Air: Narratives and Practices Linking COVID-19 with Air Pollution and Climate Change

“…In the first phase of a pandemic, collapse (lasting around 6 months), connections sustaining seemingly stable and large social systems break. In Medieval Europe, despite the social systems breaking down during the Plague, status quo system indicators continued to be used for understanding and measuring the event phenomena-for example, mass deaths (Geobey & McGowan, 2019). Also, traditional worldviews remained intact and were used to frame solutions.…”

“…A review of the narratives from the European Black Death plague during the fourteenth century found that those experiencing the pandemic developed personal understandings or meanings of the societal changes, which then progressed to collective understandings of how to respond to the crisis (Geobey & McGowan, 2019). The authors overlaid the narratives and measures of system resilience by mapping the Plague over the four phases of the adaptive cycle found in socioecological systems: collapse, reorganization, exploitation, and conservation (Holling & Gunderson, 2002, as cited in Geobey & McGowan, 2019). Similarly, I describe the narratives and practices linking the current pandemic and pollution throughout these adaptive cycle phases to understand current and future changes from COVID-19.…”

“…During the next phase of a pandemic, reorganization (3 months to 10 years), the system is in chaos, but new features start to emerge. The previous status quo indicators are questioned by a growing number of people, but powerful, established institutions may try to reinforce the status quo ante (Geobey & McGowan, 2019).…”

“…This situation is also the case for pandemics and pollution. Geobey and McGowan (2019) asked: "Can we understand how people make sense of complex systemic change from inside that system in real time?" (p. 23).…”

“…This situation is also the case for pandemics and pollution. Geobey and McGowan (2019) asked: “Can we understand how people make sense of complex systemic change from inside that system in real time?” (p. 23). In this article, I examine narratives and practices linking COVID-19 and air pollution as the pandemic unfolds, and their implications for future sustainability.…”