Panama Canal

2022

JML

This study attempted to specify logit models for bulkers transporting mostly thermal coal from the East Coast of Colombia to Chile through the Panama Canal compared to the alternative route. The preliminary proposed predictors for the logit models included voyage cost variables and Canal's attributes. For the route choice of coal from the East Coast of Colombia to Chile, voyage cost factors such as Panama Canal cost, distance difference between Panama versus alternative route, post arrival of vessel to the next port and the maximum transit draft were important factors in this choice, as well as Panama Canal attributes such as vessel arrivals at the Panama Canal and the Panamax Plus requirement to transit the neopanamax locks. The route choice involved the Panama Canal and Cape Horn/Magellan Strait in the Southern tip of South America. This study analyzed coal traffic between October 1, 2016, and September 30, 2020, and briefly discussed the future of coal movements through Panama, given Chile's long term plans to generate electricity using renewanable energy sources and hydrogen. This paper is a contribution to the discrete choice literature and attempted to provide insights into route choice factors involving the Panama Canal, proposing new preliminary explanatory variables to better understand route choices that may apply in future Panama Canal studies. The study will be a contribution to the universal maritime coal transportation literature, and it is a continuation on research related to the Panama canal, particularly on route choices using AIS information.

Section: Journal Of Maritime Logisticsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Journal Of Maritime Logisticsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding the Thermal Coal Movements From Colombia to Chile Through the Panama Canal Using Logit Models- Looking Ahead

2022

JML

Panama Canal vs alternative routes: estimating a logit model for grains

2019

MABR

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to fit a logit model for dry bulkers transporting grains through the Panama Canal versus alternative routes destined to East Asia, originating on the US Gulf and East Coast. This is with the purpose of better understanding the attributes. Design/methodology/approach In this paper, grain transits both through the Panama Canal and alternative routes, which are examined, and a logit model is developed to explain the route decision from a carrier/vessel operator point of view. Findings Transit draft is the most important attribute in the route decision process for grains according to this study. Also, Panamax bulkers are the preferred vessel size into China, especially through the Cape of Good Hope route, impacting Panama Canal’s market share for grains. Research limitations/implications This research used only a full year of grain traffic data approximating fiscal year 2018 (October 1, 2017 to September 30, 2018). Data will come mostly from the Panama Canal transit data and observations using IHS’s Market Intelligence Network (MINT). Originality/value This paper is highly dependent on visual observations of grains vessels through alternative routes using AIS data from MINT software.

Estimating a global demand model for soybean traffic through the Panama Canal

2021

J. shipp. trd.

This study attempts to fit a global demand model for soybean traffic through the Panama Canal using Ordinary Least Square. Most of the soybean cargo through the interoceanic waterway is loaded on the U.S. Gulf and East Coast ports -mainly destined to East Asia, especially China-, and represented about 34% of total Panama Canal grain traffic between fiscal years 2010–19. To estimate the global demand model for soybean traffic, we are considering explanatory variables such as effective toll rates through the Panama Canal, U.S. Gulf- Asia and U.S. Pacific Northwest- Asia freight rates, Baltic Dry Index, bunker costs, soybean export inspections from the U.S. Gulf and Pacific Northwest, U.S. Gulf soybean basis levels, Brazil’s soybean exports and average U.S. dollar index. As part of the research, we are pursuing the estimation of the toll rate elasticity of vessels transporting soybeans via the Panama Canal. Data come mostly from several U.S. Department of Agriculture sources, Brazil’s Secretariat of Foreign Trade (SECEX) and from Panama Canal transit information. Finally, after estimation of the global demand model for soybean traffic, we will discuss the implications for future soybean traffic through the waterway, evaluating alternative routes and sources for this trade.